China’s Reinforcing BRICS with the Foundation of Development Bank

By Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Oct 2, 2015

In June 2014, the BRICS group formed by the so-called emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and the new member, South Africa had effectively signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at creating a new international financial institution. A year later, these same countries materialized this project by capitalizing the New Development Bank with 200 billion dollars as liquid assets. This banking organization was designated by the BRICS Development Bank whose active capital was endowed with 100 billion dollars below a monetary reserve of a currency worth more than 100 billion dollars.

Currently, this New Development Bank, also known as BRICS Bank, has been approved by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress during its meetings which were held till July 1, 2015. The authorities in India and Russia had already approved the creation of this bank. While South Africa will present the related ratification documents during this month of July 2015 during a meeting of BRICS countries taking place in the Russian city of Ufa

From this perspective, the other bank promoted by China as an alternative to existing development institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, is the new Asian Development Bank, known as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. , which was created in October 2014. As a snub to the Washington administration, Britain and Germany are among its 57 member states.

The following Article is written to celebrate the Memoirs of Yves Barel (IREP-Grenoble) and Celso Furtado (Sorbonne-Paris and Brazil), the Two Vectors – Thinkers who traced the economic contours of my trajectory in the orbit of Research and my long crossing of the intellectual desert of economic development to reach the oasis of the Doctorate in France.

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 Dr. Yves Barel

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  Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

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      Dr. Celso Furtado

Dr. James Garrett and Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui invited by the Government of China, an initiative expressing China’s ambition and objective to play a key role in international trade and finance.

Global Economic Emergence and its Foundations for Structural Emancipation

The evolution of the world economy had been justified by developmentalist theory in order to accelerate the integration of Third World countries into the international market, following their decolonization. Subsequently, developmentalist theory was also used and considered as a platform for insertion into the economic and political machinery favoring globalization. This approach was criticized for its stated desire to omit the specificities and diversities characterizing societies in the South.

Faced with this kind of ignorance, the notion of dependence was developed in Latin America or by Latin Americans who wanted to effectively thwart the globalization of production, the international division of labor and the multinationalization of the exploitation of raw materials which were all evaluated as a regional manifestation inherited from imperialism.

“The first works insist on economic dependence (deterioration of the terms of trade and more generally exploitation of peripheral states forced to integrate into the system of international capitalism). It is interesting to note here that, contrary to the developmentalist perspective, dependency theory does not consider “underdevelopment” and “development” as two successive stages but as two functions of the same system.

Within the framework of the confrontation of these theories and the corresponding strategies of economic development, the creation of this New Development Bank has therefore remained a demand of structuralist economists since the mid-1950s. It is in a way one of the financial derivatives of the followers of Keynesianism doctrine of development.

This economic orientation favoring recovery and growth first took root in countries that had broken the prohibitive and mercantile Iberian colonial yoke and subsequently aspired to emancipation from successive British and North American tutelage. In this, she had marked out the meanders of structuralist thinkers in Latin America under the aegis first of Raul Prebrish and later of CElso Furtado.

Celso Furtado also became the direct manager in the administration of Brazilian President Juscelino Kubitschek. Through this function, he had effectively begun the application of economic methods and recipes seeking to neutralize the consequences and generalizations of the aforementioned developmentalist policies. Among the initiatives taken was indeed the creation of the “National Bank for Economic Development” which was advocated by Celso Furtado with the backing of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

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In such a framework, the roots of the New Development Bank of the BRICS Bloc can be traced back to the old attempts of Latin American countries to want to provide their economies with a central bank capable of financing their development projects without increasing the interest rates, inflation rates and external borrowing requirements which reverberated with destructive conditions on economic development and its political ambitions for national independence.

In this framework, the long dominance of the US dollar since the signing of the Bretton Woods agreement and the creation of the Nixon administration of Petrodollars (oil shock of 1973) were beginning to show cracks and weakness in resolution, remittance and refinancing of international financial transactions.

Since then, events such as the Cold War, regional conflicts and global economic crises have shaken the predominance of financial tools and the organizational instruments put in place by the United States concerning the circulation of foreign currencies and the regulation of investments in recipient countries in Europe and Asia. Faced with this structural financial dependence, South-South cooperation initiatives were taken since the beginning of the new millennium and were subsequently consolidated by regional agreements which effectively sought to counterbalance the promotion of free trade agreements. advocated by the United States and the European Union.

These agreements tended to form tariff blocks geared towards the needs of the countries of the North. Similarly, given the tradition that infrastructure projects subject to agreements with neighboring countries or partners in South-South cooperation often come up against the risk of cancellation or reduction of relative investments given the cuts and adjustments made in national budget allocations. Indeed, the projects carried out by triangular companies within the framework of South-South cooperation are frequently financed by official development assistance and therefore remain exposed to the vagaries and budgetary restrictions adopted in the national budget.

With this in mind, the Latin American countries of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) group decided in April 2008 to create a common monetary policy body, a currency of account for their commercial relations, a clearing house for payments and a reserve fund for commercial transactions. In May 2009, seven South American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela) founded the Bank of the South which was endowed with a capital of 7 billion USD for the purpose of financing development projects. There is also talk of extending this approach in the direction of a monetary union or a monetary stabilization fund.

In Southeast Asia, member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had signed the extension of the Multilateral Credit Agreement (Chiangmai Initiative). In February 2009, their finance ministers – joined by those of China, Japan and South Korea – increased the volume of this agreement to 120 billion USD.

http://www.senat.fr/rap/r13-087-1/r13-087-1_mono.html

New Development Bank by Emerging Countries: BRICS

The system based in Western banking institutions and the recent financial scandals stemming from Libor (London interbank offered rate) and other related fraudulent behaviors had increased the reluctance of emerging countries to continue to be financed by a system that remained focused solely on lending volume as a key measure of the success of funded projects. At the same time, the development and integration of resolution methods and the transfer of financial assets conveyed by the new information technology have added several determinations to the economies of emerging countries to establish their own channels to finance their infrastructures by directly using their own funds, without the inherent costs of intermediaries. Advances in technology have also made it easier to consult and plan infrastructure projects which will be financed as BRICS joint development projects for their own country and for the rest of the developing countries.

In addition, the need for alternative global financial instruments is increasing as bilateral trade has grown between emerging countries and between them and the rest of the developing world, the so-called underdeveloped countries , not so long ago. For these reasons, the financial institutions and establishments offered by Western companies, such as the regional agencies of the IMF, the World Bank and the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, are considered organizations dominated by shareholders and Western states. This control is seen as a new challenge for the success of projects oriented towards the development of national resources and related infrastructure.

From this perspective, the other bank promoted by China as an alternative to existing development institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, is the new Asian Development Bank, known as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, which was created in October 2014, as a snub to the Washington administration, Britain and Germany are among its 57 member states.

Creation of Commercial Blocks, A Complement to Financial Autonomy:

To avoid such obstacles and to reduce costs and time in terms of achievements, emerging economies are developing regional free trade blocs and financial aspect treaties. For these reasons, BRICS members seek to strengthen bilateral trade relations without relying on the assessment or approval of bodies controlled by Western powers. The other decisive aspect in this declared desire for world-class financial independence and regional commercial location is the total costs invoiced by the credit institution which it considers to be closely associated with and under the direct influence of the dollar for transactions and for the development of international trade in commodities and primary products.

The implications of all these new forms of competitiveness at the level of financial transactions and their considerable impact on the balance of payments, in particular the current accounts of the countries concerned, have become unequivocal for emerging countries. For this, their parades remained focused on the creation, circulation and control of new currencies despite the fact that these same financial settlement instruments and payment methods will first only be accepted within certain trading blocs. before achieving international acceptance. The establishment of regional regulatory banking institutions for the routing of these financial flows aim to be fiduciary and financial actors at the global level are the first signs of such an approach.

In this international regionalization of financial agreements, the members of the BRICS bloc are indeed seeking to plant the first seeds of a wider harvest of their financial cultures and this beyond their own territorial or even regional borders. Indeed, these financial emancipation efforts remain undeclared but which in reality tend towards the creation of financial alternatives that want to be non-competitive but in fact they stand out in a political trajectory towards the establishment of the first structures of financing whose objectives remain framed in the areas of national development without interference from the liberal ideologies promoted by Western banks in their sanction and their granting of loans and borrowings for the development of projects in third countries.

Gradual Consolidation of Southern and Emerging Countries against the Union of Western Banks

In this perspective, the initiative of the creation of this New Development Bank is in fact only a preamble to a longer march towards the emergence of new forms of negotiation and acquisition of funds for the financing of relations South-South trade. Without financial guarantee, the effects and performance of developing countries at the level of international trade remain subject to international banks which, through their financial weight and their manipulation of the conditions for acquiring loans, can influence the course and volume of trade. between developing countries. This step of creating local financing conditions therefore remains essential as a response to the omnipresent domination of Northern countries in setting pricing conditions, designating rates for international loans and the destination as well as the main beneficiaries of these same international commercial relations.

This is more vivid and clear when one takes into account the dependence of developing countries and potentially emerging economies on the financing of their infrastructure projects and on the consolidation of their own political and strategic choices concerns the economic direction, the sectoral allocation and the budget of their own finances.

In order to protect themselves against Western currency instability and fluctuations, BRICS BANK member countries are requested to also provide means and financial resources to counter the influence of lending institutions provided by the West and across the world. appreciation or devaluation of the US dollar, particularly in the wake of the current financial crisis traversing Western economies and the regional conflicts generated by the consequent race for natural resources around the world.

In June 2014, the BRICS group formed by the so-called emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and the new member, South Africa had effectively signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at creating a new international financial institution. A year later, these same countries materialized this project by capitalizing the New Development Bank with 200 billion dollars as liquid assets. This banking organization was designated by the BRICS Development Bank whose active capital was endowed with 100 billion dollars below a monetary reserve of a currency worth more than 100 billion dollars.

Currently, this New Development Bank, also known as BRICS Bank, has been approved by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress during its meetings which were held till July 1, 2015. The authorities in India and Russia had already approved the creation of this bank. While South Africa will present the related ratification documents during this month of July 2015 during a meeting of BRICS countries taking place in the Russian city of Ufa

BRICS A Recovery Cooperative for Growth and Economic Development

The BRICS Bloc when its members are considered in terms of demographic and economic standards, their respective economies can be classified as heavyweights in the global environment. Indeed, the economies of the BRICS bloc are increasingly emerging as new competitors to the foundations and offshoots of the New World Order inherited from the presidency of Bush Sr. Indeed, taking gross domestic product into account, the BRICS group is currently home to 42 percent of the world’s population and accounts for about 20 percent of the global economy. Using purchasing power parity as a basis, the BRICS Five countries also hold 30 percent of the world’s GDP.

Similarly, the total trade between the BRICS countries is $6.14 trillion, almost 17 percent of the global total. In terms of investments worldwide, their contribution stands at 11 percent of the investments made. China, India and Brazil are also ranked among the largest economies in the world with over $2 trillion (€1.25 trillion) in nominal GDP.

By way of comparison, in 2015, the members of the Global Club of privileged “Elite” countries were the United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and India. Their ranking with respect to respective GDP in trillion US dollars is as follows: US $18.1 – China $11.2 – Japan $4.2 – Germany $3.4 – UK $2, 9 – France $2.5 – India $2.3 – Brazil $1.9 – Italy $1.8 – Canada $1.6.

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Organizational Structure of the New Development Bank

Within this New Bank, each member of the BRICS bloc will have a reserved seat on the Representative Council for their Minister of Finance or the President of their Central Bank. The other innovation is that membership of this bank is not limited only to members of the BRICS bloc, as is the case for other Western and international financial institutions. BRICS Bank will be headquartered in Shanghai, with India holding the presidency for its first year of operation; while Russia was granted the chairmanship of the board of directors. It was also agreed that an African regional center of the Development Bank will be established in South Africa.

During a recent interview conducted by RT (Russian international television), the new president of the Development Bank, Kundapur Vaman Kamath also declared that a “significant part” of the bank’s activity could be carried out in foreign currencies. local. “I haven’t applied my mind what the consequent effect will have on other currencies. But this concerns more our local currencies and it is our own countries that are concerned since this measure will significantly reduce exchange rate risks. He also predicted that by April 2016, the New Development Bank could issue its first loan for a national-level infrastructure project.

In reality, the preference given to the use of the local currency of the member countries is a financial practice advocated to reduce the resistance of national banks and also to facilitate local and regional transactions with the aim of integrating them into the activity of credit and loan from the New Development Bank and this without recourse to the international financial market or the use of foreign currencies. Such an adaptation also seeks to avoid the jolts and volatility of the financial market based on the US Dollar and the Euro.

Mr. Kamath also clarified: “I think clearly the establishment of this bank is also a signal that developing countries are now able to stand on their feet and in their own way to implement set up their own institutions. Going forward, we are really looking to broaden the membership base for new members.” In this perspective, the New Development Bank remains open to other emerging countries, such as Mexico, Indonesia, or Argentina, once this country settles its debt burden.

Pending such prospecting, the initial funding comes from each current BRICS member who will contribute an equal share in the creation of a start-up capital of 50 billion dollars while the full participation remains in the order of 100 billion dollars. This capitalization represents a loan fund in times of crisis and is called the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). China has already contributed $41 billion, while Russia, Brazil and India will add $18 billion, while South Africa, the newest member, will contribute $5 billion. Since China’s contribution represents 39.5 percent of the total, this country therefore holds the largest share of voting rights in the Central Administration Committee.

Bibliographic Notes and Additional Notes for Clarification

On the 07/09/2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin is meeting with BRICS leaders in an expanded format at the BRICS / SCO summits in the Russian city of Ufa. See the video on the following link: http://rt.com/on-air/putin-meets-brics-leaders/

The French Senate: Escape of capital and finance: knowing better to fight better (Report)
http://www.senat.fr/rap/r13-087-1/r13-087-1_mono.html

NB: * Comments can be sent directly to Dr. Said Cherkaoui: saidcherkaoui@triconsultingkyoto.com
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European Central Bank Challenged by Inflation and Recession

The European Central Bank is an institution that remains anchored in the management of funds and assets like any other international bank or global financial institution such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund with respect to member countries.

The ECB practices with the countries of Southern Europe and the new member countries of the European Union what the World Bank and the IMF practice with the countries of the South.

Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Greece were in time considered as new members which should have a different treatment than the countries having formed the Common Market and the European Economic Community and that at the level of the monetary policy and the policy of budgetary allocations for the development of their regions most affected by the new standards of unbalanced competition and the predations they have suffered from the first member countries of Northern Europe.

Today, Greece continues to experience the same relational phenomenon with the rest of Europe and the European Central Bank, especially since now President @Christine Lagarde, a graduate of the IMF and financial scandals in France has not arrived. determined the strategic course to follow to right the wrongs inflicted on the European countries still dependent on the umbrella of the European institutions in order to be able to continue to survive in this economic and financial slump caused by the European Commission in its excess support for the military policy of the United States.

The turmoil going through the Western advanced economies are a strong reminder of the failure of the Capitalism System to regenerate level of growth proportional to the advance of the social needs and the mutation of the demand of countries and economies seeking first the satisfaction of large pan of their population that are marginalized by the selective Globalization of the Supply Chain Management.

These preferences of the tenants of the International Market and the exchange of goods and commodities are conducted to the detriment of the countries less developed who are evolving in the subcapitalist sphere of exchanges and value transfert. These subcapitalist countries are actually the ones who calling into question the predominance of Liberalism distorted by its own setbacks and its internal splendor as well as by its claim of wanting to be the Super Model of Economic Growth when space is deserted of all other niches that can support such an adventure decided in ebony and ivory towers away from the reality of inflation, recession, unemployment and social hardship on the ground of daily survival for the popular masses.

La Banque Centrale Européenne est une institution qui demeure ancrée dans la gestion des fonds et des actifs comme tout autre banque internationale ou institution financière globale tel que la Banque Mondiale et le Fonds Monétaire International en ce qui concerne les pays membres. 

La BCE pratique avec les pays du Sud de l’Europe et les nouveaux pays membres de l’Union Européenne ce que la Banque Mondiale et le FMI pratique avec les pays du Sud.

Le Portugal, l’Espagne, L’Irlande et la Grèce furent dans le temps considérés comme nouveaux membres qui devraient avoir un traitement différent que les pays ayant formé le Marché Commun et la Communauté Économique Européenne et cela au niveau de la politique monétaire et la politique d’allocations budgétaire pour le développement de leurs régions les plus touchées par les nouvelles normes de la compétition déséquilibrée et les prédations qu’ils ont subi de la part des premiers pays membres du Nord de l’Europe.

Aujourd’hui, la Grèce continue de vivre le même phénomène relationnel avec le reste de l’Europe et la Banque Centrale Européenne surtout que maintenant la Présidente @Christine Lagarde, une diplômée du FMI et des scandales financiers de France n’est point arrivée a déterminé le cours stratégique a suivre pour redresser les torts infligés aux pays européens dépendants encore du parapluie des institutions européennes pour pouvoir continuer à survivre dans ce marasme économique et financier provoqué par la Commission Européenne dans sa démesure soutien de la politique militaire des Etats Unis.

Les turbulences qui traversent les économies avancées occidentales sont un rappel fort de l’échec du système capitaliste à régénérer un niveau de croissance proportionnel à l’avancée des besoins sociaux et à la mutation de la demande des pays et économies recherchant d’abord la satisfaction d’une grande partie de leur population marginalisée par la mondialisation sélective de la gestion de la chaîne d’approvisionnement.

Ces préférences des tenants du Marché International et de l’échange de biens et de marchandises se font au détriment des pays les moins développés qui évoluent dans la sphère subcapitaliste des échanges et du transfert de valeur. Ces pays sous-capitalistes sont en réalité ceux qui remettent en cause la prédominance du libéralisme déformé par ses propres déboires et sa splendeur interne ainsi que par sa prétention à vouloir être le Super Modèle de Croissance Économique alors que l’espace est déserté de toutes les autres niches qui peuvent soutenir une telle aventure décidée dans des tours d’ébène et d’ivoire loin de la réalité de l’inflation, de la récession, du chômage et de la misère sociale sur le terrain de la survie quotidienne des masses populaires.

25 years of euro unity

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25 years of euro unity

Christine Lagarde 

Presidente of the European Central Bank

53 articles Following

May 23, 2023

On 1 June 1998, the European Central Bank was established to prepare for the launch of the euro – the world’s largest ever currency changeover. As a lawyer at the time, I remember how frantically we were revising contracts based on foreign exchange rates that would soon disappear. Could the common currency really work? Today, as we celebrate the 25th anniversary of this institution, we know that it works and that the euro has brought Europe closer together.


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Entrusted by European Union governments to safeguard the euro, our staff in Frankfurt, together with colleagues in the 20 national central banks of the currency union, work tirelessly to achieve our mandate of maintaining price stability. That work is critical for the prosperity of European citizens.

Over the past 25 years, we have welcomed nine new countries to the euro area, bringing us from 11 to 20. And we have taken on new roles, including the supervision of European banks. Today the euro is the second most important currency in the international monetary system, after the US dollar.

There have been some tough times along the way. But through the economic highs and lows steered by my predecessors Wim Duisenberg, Jean-Claude Trichet and Mario Draghi, the ECB has always focused on building a stronger foundation for Europe’s future through delivering on our mandate.

The pandemic and Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine have shown that stability cannot be taken for granted. And growing geopolitical rivalries may mean that the global economy becomes increasingly volatile in future. In a world of uncertainty, the ECB has been, and will continue to be, a reliable anchor of stability.

We have shown that we can act and adapt quickly in the face of even the most serious challenges. Only a few months after I became President of the ECB, we responded swiftly to the pandemic with an array of measures to support the euro area economy through its most acute phase, avoiding deflationary risks.

Today, we are acting with the same determination to bring inflation down. After years of being too low, inflation is now too high and is set to remain so for too long. That erodes the value of money, reducing purchasing power and hurting people and businesses across the euro area – especially the most vulnerable members of our society.

But we will bring inflation back to our target of 2% over the medium term. That is why we have raised interest rates at a record pace, and why we will bring them to sufficiently restrictive levels – and keep them at those levels for as long as necessary – to return inflation to our target in a timely manner.

As recent events in the banking sector remind us, the task of monetary policy is aided by a robust banking system. Financial stability is a precondition for price stability, and vice versa. Since 2014, when we took over banking supervision, we have worked to keep banks in the euro area sound. And banking supervisors chaired by Andrea Enria will continue our efforts to make sure that banks are well-capitalised and resilient to changing conditions, so that they can keep lending to businesses and households.

Our monetary union has been tested many times in the past quarter century. We have been confronted with crises that could have torn us apart – not least the great financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis, the pandemic. But on each occasion, we have emerged stronger. We now need to build on that inner strength.

As the world becomes more unpredictable, Europe can foster resilience on two fronts. By integrating its capital markets, Europe can better facilitate investment in the green and digital sectors that are so crucial to powering its future growth. And by completing the banking union, we can ensure that the banking sector helps to dampen risks during future crises rather than amplifying them.

The former President of the European Parliament Simone Veil once said that “we need a Europe capable of solidarity, of independence and of cooperation”. This captures well what the euro represents. Ultimately, the euro is more than a currency. It is the strongest form of European integration and stands for a united Europe that works together, protecting and benefiting all its citizens.

And the ECB will always be a cornerstone of that effort.

This blog was published as an opinion piece in newspapers of all 20 euro area countriesReport this

Published by Christine Lagarde

Presidente of the European Central Bank

Published • 23h – 53 articles

The euro has brought Europe closer together. In this article, I look back on 25 years of the European Central Bank, euro unity and our commitment to price stability. We will keep working to strengthen the foundations for Europe’s future by delivering on our mandate.


European Central Bank Challenged by Eurozone, Euro, Inflation and Recession

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Oct 3, 2022

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Global Finance against Global Energy Market !


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Dr. Cherkaoui 30th Anniversary on Teaching European Economic Community at Golden Gate University

European CommissionEuropean Commission

David Fike – President of Golden Gate University, San Francisco, California.

Dr. Cherkaoui 30th Anniversary on Teaching the First Course on EEC in the Entire History of Golden Gate University

Celebrating 30 years of my research and my course at Golden Gate University as we mark the 30th anniversary of the Single Market, this cornerstone of European integration remains as relevant as ever as my contribution to the advance of knowledge on the European Economic Community in the Bay Area of San Francisco and beyond.

In 1991-1992, I published an extract of my research on EEC 1992 and the European Monetary System at the Golden Gate University‘s Magazine “Connection” et created for the first time in the History of this institution a course on EEC 1992.  I have also conducted an interview with an European Commissaire visiting the Law School of Berkeley and had him come to the class to present to the students his perspective on the Construction of the Single European Market.

During the same course, we compared the preparation of NAFTA in North America with the rest of the Market Integration taking place in Europe.

Here are excerpts of my publications on these two parallel topics.

Dr. Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Early Two Disctinct Research and Publications on the European Economic Community and the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Dr. Cherkaoui had also Taught these topics as Two Graduate Courses at the School of Business, Golden Gate University in the year of 1992

Blue Europe is still Going, Going, Going and Energizing on the Road Again


European Central Bank Challenged by Eurozone, Euro, Inflation and Recession

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Oct 3, 2022

25 years of euro unity

Christine Lagarde  President of the European Central Bank 53 articles Following May 23, 2023 On 1 June 1998, the European Central Bank was established to prepare for the launch of the euro – the world’s largest ever currency changeover. As a lawyer at the time, I remember how frantically we were revising contracts based on foreign … Continue reading

Redefining Banking Globalization

 Mar 20, 2023  Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Dear Readers and Friends: It is our pleasure to share with you this Dossier – Analytical Study addressing the present challenge of the financial system and the banking sector which we have titled: “Redefining Banking Globalization” Which we present it to you in the form and content as: “Dossier – Analytical Study on Cranked Globalization, Tossed Financial Capitalism, Derailed Banking System“. Your comments and suggestions are always welcomed. Please feel free to share our publications with your colleagues, acquaintances and family members including your neighbors. Thank you for your support. … Continue reading

Analyse de BRICS sans y ajouter aucune Brique

La prééminence des banques britanniques telles que Barings et Rothschild Maison de courtage et des banquiers qui retracent leurs profits dans le commerce des armes contingent du commerce mercantiliste du colonialisme ibérique en Amérique latine. Le changement de l’épicentre du commerce mondial avait provoqué des pertes fonctionnelles continuelles à ces systèmes bancaires et monétaires identifiés dans la prétention de domination et de conquête impériale.  Ces changements ont été promulgués d’abord par les courtisanes de la Couronne britannique de Grande-Bretagne qui ont promu l’École classique de pensées économiques qui ont abordé la valeur et l’argent avec Adam Smith et David Ricardo qui ont suscité la réponse de Karl Marx, … Lire la suite


Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central Bank

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Global Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRIGlobal Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRI One of the results of Operation Kamikaze taken by the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde who following consultative meeting with the International Monetary Fund’s President, she insisted that … Continue reading

Monetary Policy Process

“Monetary policy is to orient economic activity by regularizing the money supply “ Monetarism, Liberalism and Globalization: US Reactions and Coronavirus Clashes The Aftermath of Coronavirus? Is this a Mathematical Formula or New Readings of Economic State Intervention? Where is the Invisible Hand of the Market? A second lecture more sincere of the works of … Continue reading

Global Finance against Global Energy Market !


Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Research – Publication: NAFTA to CUSMA

 

Changing World Economy

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Oakland California – USA 15 Janvier 2021


Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America

Work and Research by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui on Latin America L’Accord de libre-échange nord-américain (ALÉNA) – … Continue reading Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America

GLOBALLEVERAGE

Amérique Latine: Secteur Informel, Commerce Électronique et Subcapitalisme

Le secteur informel du Pérou, du Brésil, de la Colombie comme au Mexique pour ne citer que les plus en vue, s’était érigé comme une alternative a l’inertie bureaucratique des Etats gouvernés .. Continue reading Amérique Latine: Secteur Informel, Commerce Électronique et Subcapitalisme


Within such range of informal sector operations, you have also to consider that many financial institutions are offering banking services without being a Bank this is the case of the Post Office – Barid.

The presentation here remains instructive and indicative of a reality that needs to be approached from inside the country not from the perspective of these international financial institutions that have their own motives in their soi-disant finding and recommendations that remained twisted by self-interest and self-promotion in regards to the solutions and the services they provide as well as the credit line they open for country-members of their organization.

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Economie Mondiale en Mutation

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – California – 15 Janvier 2021 إذا ريتا منكرن فغيره بي يديك فين لم تستطيع فغيره بي ليسانك فين لم تستطيع … Continue reading

Economie Mondiale En Mutation

Lire ici la version de cet article en Langue Française de France: Economie Mondiale en Mutation

During the 1980s, the differences between non-Western countries and Third World countries became evident with regard to economic changes and progress at the level of the participation in the new industrial division of labor and the implementation of industrial strategy.

Since President Reagan, Free Trade and aggressive Liberal policies have flattened the national resistance and planted the seeds in the global playfield for the rise of oligopolies, monopoles and conglomerates in the most advanced economies. In parallel, the strategies of conditionality on the application of liberal policies and privatization defended by international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF and The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development where shoved in the throat of “Third World Countries,” have contributed directly in increasing poverty and inequalities in developing economies.

In advanced countries instead of having regulations and protection of the economic market forces, the principle of price reduction and affordability of goods for consumers was then defended allowing the rise of monopoles favored by acquisitions, mergers and absorptions which created dominant companies that extended their power in the political and government decisions while reducing the competition and the income of the States which both impacted the level of distribution and the increase of inequalities and poverty among the popular and workforce masses as well as within the underdeveloped countries.

East and Southeast Asia continued to grow rapidly by maintaining close ties with the world economy framed by the needs of the western European and north American countries, facilitating the redeployment of products made in Western countries which in light of international integration they were thus competing within their own market by local, regional and international products.

“As a result, the world faced a difficult global economic situation as it entered the 1980s – a situation marked not only by high inflation and unemployment (internal imbalances) in developed countries, but also by large account deficits. Current balance of payments (external imbalance) in many developed and developing countries. In addition, lower demand in developed countries has resulted in lower commodity prices and worsening terms of trade for many developing countries that depend on commodity exports. Given the difficult economic situation, many countries, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, have seen an increase in debt levels in an effort to maintain economic growth.

In part the abundant recycling of petrodollars by financial institutions in developed countries contributed to the increase of debt of Third World economies. The sharp rise in interest rates in the United States of America to combat inflation at the turn of the decade raised the cost of servicing debt and caused debt crises in many countries. ” Read more at …. Reflection on development policy in the 1970s and 1980s -25 August 2017

This concentration of trade and industrial relations made the developing countries to view the Bretton Woods institutions as exclusive clubs of the rich and as instruments for enforcing unjustified political conditionality. Multilateral economic institutions: the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have also been the subject of substantial ambivalence.

In such a context of international institutional pressure, the opening and liberalization of the economy were imposed as good policy and the Milky Way to demand global integration. Thus, liberalism allied to the internationalization of the division of labor and to a selective redistribution and localization of foreign investment was seen as the only path to success and progress. Therefore, the acceptance of the developed world and its financial institutions by third countries has become the example to adapt and follow.

Rehabilitation of Developing Countries was attempted through the Recommendations requested by International Financial Groups. Developing countries had pursued strategies that led to macroeconomic imbalances and strong state intervention. Middle-income Latin American countries suffered severe shocks and were forced to implement reforms to reverse the effects. While Africa has remained largely dependent on international largesse. Developing countries are still faced with correcting the effects of these handicaps and implementing stabilization policy and stimulus measures, balances of payments and basic reforms of the exchange rate regime, liberalization and privatization.

On the other hand, the economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries, accompanied by sharp fluctuations in import demand, contributed to the economic difficulties of the least developed countries (LDCs), particularly in the early 1980s and again in the early 90

Countries heavily dependent on commodity exports have been little affected, especially oil exports (Gulf War). Even diversified exporters have also suffered, such as the exporting countries of East and Southeast Asia.

In terms of the development of financial markets, the high interest rate that prevailed in the early 1980s sharply increased the debt service ratio, the external debt service and contributed to the debt crisis. The Reaganomics crossed the Southern border and landed the Mexican crisis of August 1982, (Nationalization of banks and more dollars changed, transition between Portillo and the administration of Madrid). A sharp contraction in lending occurred after the Mexican crisis. DelaMadrid followed a neo-liberal policy coping the Northern Neighbor the Reaganomics.

Mexico’s currency crisis was fundamentally a short-term “monetary management problem, declared Mahathir Mohamed of Malaysia. In addition, Mexico was crossing a border of political elimination such as the killing of Jose Francisco Ruiz Massieu a former governor who was serving as secretary-general of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI., was shot to death on a busy street in Mexico City on Sept. 28, 1994. The killing added to the bloody shocks of an election year that had already characterized by the regime’s inability to contain the violent antics of a handful of uprising by the Zapatista considered as “rag-tag bandits in Chiapas and the assassination of the first PRI presidential candidate, Luis Donaldo Colosio.

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America

Work and Research by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui on Latin America L’Accord de libre-échange nord-américain (ALÉNA) – Said El Mansour Cherkaoui​ Celebración de 25 años de interés en México Celebration of 25 years of Interest in Mexico – … Continue reading Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America


In fact, negative transfer for all of Latin America in 1983 and stayed that way in the 1990s. For Africa, the net transfer to private creditors turned negative in 1983, but dependence on commercial loans was less pronounced, offset by official flows. Short politics have become the means to address these structural problems.

To reverse current account deficits, which forced real exchange rate adjustments, the 1980s saw dramatic devaluation and changes in exchange rate regimes in developing countries. All regions except Europe experienced stagnation in exports during the global recession in the early 1980s and again in 1985-86. As a result, macroeconomic adjustment policies had become necessary, such as the implementation of measures aimed at reducing real public expenditure, increasing revenues, slowing wage growth and controlling the growth of the money supply, generally by bias or with the effect of increasing real interest rates.

The debt crisis of the 1980s led to severe recessions in almost every country in Africa and Latin America. The World Bank and the IMF in concert with other international financial institutions have made Africa to dance to their own disastrous melodies and tunes and therefore the IMF is one of the most controversial institutions who had aggravated the public policy and made African countries to accentuate social problems and financial deficits, Africa is still paying a high price for the conditionality policies imposed by the World Bank and the IMF.

Therefore, developing countries in difficulty have faced strong pressure to avoid defaults and implement fiscal consolidation, often imposed by conditions for obtaining financial support. This has exacerbated the cost and duration of the crisis. The emphasis has been on austerity and rapid budget review, and the high social and economic costs are often overlooked. Governments have come under pressure to cut social spending and invest in infrastructure as part of the adjustment process, which has had long-term effects. After 1987, export growth resumed and Asian exports were strong, reviving the Western Hemisphere, which recovered. In Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa, it took more than a decade for the economy to recover, and since then the 1980s have been called a lost decade of development.

Opening the Door for the Global Integration and Effects of the International Crisis

Among advanced industrial states, the agenda for deeper integration is ambitious, which includes the harmonization of standards with the coordination of macroeconomic policies. In fact, it is the Research and Development sector in advanced technological fields of high added value that the difference and the gaps widened even within the groups of developed countries in terms of the international competitiveness of their product and the level of their economic growth. At the same time, this international competitiveness had ramifications and repercussions on the developing countries thus conditioning an adjustment trajectory for their frenzied race to adjust their economies in accordance with the demands of the advanced industrial countries.


These demands had largely focused on the legislative framework for the treatment of foreign direct investment in developing and sub-capitalist countries. The improvement in the foreign investment climate was therefore generally linked to the broader regulatory changes needed to align national practices with those of advanced industrial countries. For this reason, the rules governing these investments are seen as a component of the deep integration program based on a structural adjustment of national policies around a negotiated standard.

The free flow of goods and capital (not labor) is fairly well accepted among advanced industrial states as well as compensatory mechanisms that mitigate the social costs associated with an open economy. In developing countries, by contrast, national coalitions favoring a more open stance in the world economy were generally not consolidated.

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Regional Integration, Level for Global Competitiveness

Some have called the 1980s a lost decade for Latin America, if not for the rest of the developing world, both of which were characterized by economic problems and developments in political authoritarianism.

  • Decline in the availability of external commercial loans at the start of the decade
  • Strong pressure to adapt accordingly
  • Regression of political bodies and freedoms:
  • Broaden the definition of conditionality for multilateral and bilateral assistance
  • Growing bilateral pressure on US trade policy
  • Significant changes in expectations regarding the participation of developing countries in GATT
  • Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Integration
  • One of the consequences of the crisis is the incentive to attract foreign direct investment. In the 1970s, middle-income developing countries would depend on fairly easy access to external finance through European currency markets.

Direct Foreign Investment

To attract foreign investment, we start to talk about regional integration and integration into international rules and standards.

  • In Latin America, the effects of this impact are liberalization and privatization and reforms of regulatory systems.
  • Great impact and influence of advanced industrial states and foreign investors on what government can do.
  • One way to make the reversal of these policies costly.
  • IMF with the support of the World Bank and the regional development bank, negotiation of programs and conditions for more loans: adjustment policies or what is called the Tight Belt Policy.

The World Bank and the IMF believe that structural adjustment such as trade opening and liberalization, regulatory regimes and other reforms can benefit least developed countries. The interference of international lending agencies and their diktat imposed on underdeveloped and less developed economies has helped to shape a status of subcapitalist condition and constitution for indebted countries and to integrate into the global circuit of international lending.

Social effects of adjustment policy in LDCs

During the 1980s, growing recognition of the reforms also became a springboard for the donor to feed the LDCs. The exam is part of the donation. Japanese aid is in line with the trend of “political dialogue” between donors and recipients.

At the geo-strategic level, the policies of “containment” and neutralization of currents of thought that could call into question the predominance of liberal strategies for conquering international markets had succeeded in thwarting all attempts to create and establish economic development alternatives based on the national model and a Third World vision. Thus, despite the advance and the creativity of several Masters in economic development, such as G. Destanne de Bernis, François Perroux, the Swede Myrdal, the Argentinian Prebisch and the Brazilian Celso Furtado and the Hungarian Tibor Mende, the liberalism continued to sail and survive all social reforms even by resorting to coups, boycott and cover-actions if not the outright elimination of the leaders of the non-aligned or liberation movements national economic. (The author Said El Mansour Cherkaoui had the privelege to conduct his doctoral research among teams led by Directors of Research and Professors such as G. Destanne de Bernis and Celso Furtado respectively at the Institut de Recherche Economique et Planification of Grenoble University and at the Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amerique Latine, Sorbonne University, Paris)

A work of undermining nationalist militants considered to be leftists was undertaken throughout a long period with the objective of “pure and simple purification” of individual resistance and mass movements of the questioning of political and economic foundations, social, cultural and even religious Liberalism Made in the West.

From the start of the debt crisis to the start the eighties Third World countries, and especially the most indebted countries in Africa and Latin America, posted a some cases severe deterioration of social conditions, a increasing level of absolute poverty, a partial collapse of social and physical infrastructure, increased crime and internal disturbances. The per capita income of indebted countries have fallen by a seventh since 1980 and that of sub-Saharan African countries by a quarter?

In Africa, the investment ratio, which gives an indication of future growth prospects, fell to level recorded in the mid-1960s and in some countries is no longer sufficient to maintain the capital of the economy Stock.

In the most indebted countries, real wages are now lower than in 1982 (38% less in Mexico and 21% less in Brazil) and unemployment has increased due to slowing economic growth. Public spending fell by 18% in indebted countries and public investments have been reduced by 35%, compromising growth prospects and to a deterioration of social indicators.

For example, most developing countries cut spending health care and education and reduces the quality of utilities in these areas. Per capita expenditure on education in Latin America is now lower than early eighties and the capital expenditure for educational institutions now represent only a fraction of What it was. The same goes for the health service, with the result that the drop in infant mortality in Third Countries of the world have slowed down and global mortality is again slightly up. Nutrition has also deteriorated again in many countries, particularly due to the agricultural producer prices.

Big money bomb of one hundred dollar bills with a hot wick. Shortly before the explosion. The concept of international financial currency crisis
the World Bank and IMF and other international banks demanded payment of interest and debt service, which in many cases accounted for 25% and more of the value of total exports from indebted economies.


There is now a wider trend towards critical literature on the Third World to blame the adjustment programs prescribed by the IMF or the World Bank for these unfavorable developments, since they all require fairly severe cuts in budgetary expenditure and other measures to curb demand and guide less developed economies to exports, leading to a decline in real wages, a temporary increase in unemployment and the destruction of national production capacity. The implementation of the programs also takes place responsible for the rise of internal conflicts and repression in developing societies. On the other hand, we often read that democratization and adjustment are irreconcilable or that only authoritarian regimes are able to execute typical IMF programs.

A spiral of indebtedness ensued, the repercussions of which went beyond economic growth and the balance of external accounts, they resulted in the worsening of the living conditions of the already poorest social strata in developing countries. For this reason, donor countries have generally left issues of policy conditionality in the hands of international financial institutions. Source: Institut for AIIgemeine 0berseeforschung, Hamburg, West Germany, INTERECONOMICS, May / June 1990

Social inequalities, the wage bill and international trade

The World Bank and Social Inequalities

In a major speech to the National Press Club in Washington on October 10, 2007, Robert Zoellick formulated what he described as “six strategic themes in support of the goal of inclusive and sustainable globalization” that he described. proposed to guide the future work of the World Bank:

First, the World Bank Group faces the challenge of helping to overcome poverty and stimulate sustainable growth in the poorest countries, especially in Africa …

Second, we must address the particular problems of states emerging from conflict or seeking to avoid state collapse …

Third, the World Bank Group needs a more differentiated business model for middle-income countries …

Fourth, the World Bank Group will need to play a more active role in promoting regional and global public goods that transcend national borders and benefit many countries and citizens …

Fifth, one of the most notable challenges of our time is how to support those who seek to advance development and opportunities in the Arab world …

Finally, while the World Bank Group has some of the attributes of a finance and development enterprise, its vocation is much broader. It is a unique and special institution of knowledge and learning. It collects and provides valuable data. Yet it is not a university – rather it is a “brain trust” of applied experience that will help us address the other five policy themes.

“For decades, scholars of international security and politics have debated the emergence of a multipolar system. It is time to recognize the economic dimension of this concept. After witnessing the disappearance of the “second world” in 1989, during the fall of communism, we observed in 2009 the end of what was called the “third world”: we now live in a new multipolar world economy. which is evolving rapidly, ”Zoellick said during a speech at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars in Washington, recalling that some had called the former President of the United States a“ missed opportunity ”. “We cannot afford to have the same geopolitical rhetoric as before. “

“Poverty continues to be rife and must be tackled. Failed states still exist and must be taken into account. Global challenges are intensifying and must be met. However, we need to approach these issues from a different perspective, ”said Zoellick. “Outdated notions of developed countries and third worlds, donors and seekers, leaders and followers no longer correspond to reality. »Statement made on April 14, 2010 by the President of the World Bank Group Robert B. Zoellick.

Thus, developed and developing economies have experienced an increase in income inequalities within them since the 1980s. Trade has become more globalized over the same period. Many studies have sought to determine whether globalization has contributed to the intensification of inequalities. To do so, they sought to identify the various channels through which the development of international trade could influence wage dynamics [ [FMI, 2007; Pavcnik, 2011]Lire plus dans: Le commerce international accroît-il les inégalités ?]

According to the most recent estimates, 10% of the world’s population lived on less than $ 1.90 per day in 2015, which represents 734 million people. This rate reached almost 36% in 1990, or 1.9 billion people.

But this trend is likely to be reversed in 2020, due to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and the fall in oil prices. Poor populations will bear the brunt of the consequences, including job cuts, declining remittances from migrant workers, price hikes and disorganization of education and health services, among others.

For the first time since 1998, poverty rates will start to rise again as the world economy slips into recession and the GDP per capita falls sharply. The current crisis threatens to erase all of the progress made over the past five years. Depending on a range of assumptions on the size of this economic shock, between 40 and 60 million additional people will fall into extreme poverty (less than $ 1.90 per day) in 2020 as a result of the pandemic , according to World Bank estimates. The global extreme poverty rate could increase by 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points, reaching around 9% in 2020.

In addition, the proportion of the population living on less than $ 3.20 per day could increase between 0.3 and 1.7 percentage points and reach a low range of 23%, or in absolute value between 40 and 150 million more people. Finally, the share of the world’s population living on less than $ 5.50 a day could grow within a range of 0.4 to 1.9 percentage points, reaching 42% or more, which would represent between 70 and 180 millions of inhabitants. It should be noted that these projections are extremely volatile and subject to large variations from country to country (a).

But this trend is expected to reverse in 2020, due to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and lower oil prices. Poor people will suffer the consequences, including job cuts, lower remittances from migrant workers, price hikes and the disruption of education and health services, among others.

The UNCTAD report pointed out that the key to success would be to tackle a series of pre-existing conditions that threatened the health of the global economy already before the pandemic. These include hyper-inequality, unsustainable debt levels, low investment, stagnating wages in developed countries and insufficient formal sector jobs in developing countries. . “The real concern is that inequalities were already there before COVID-19.

COVID-19 has reminded us that we did not address them after the global financial crisis. The promise was to address inequality, but most Western countries have failed to do so,” Kozul-Wright said. “We need to focus on full employment and wages in advanced economies. Developing countries need support to boost their industrial development […] We need appropriate employment and wage policies, but we will also need appropriate social policies,” he added.

The Case of Zambia in Southern Africa

In November 2020, Zambia made headlines when it became the first African country to default on its debt to foreign lenders during the global COVID-19 health crisis. While many African countries made significant progress in reducing their debt burdens in the 1990s and 2000s, in recent years countries such as Zambia, Kenya and Mozambique have steadily taken on more and more loans. to fund major infrastructure projects and public spending. In 2021, Zambia’s overall debt burden reached 123% of the country’s GDP according to the International Monetary Fund. Such a public debt burden poses a threat to long-term economic stability and impacts service delivery to citizens, especially in emergency contexts such as the COVID-19 pandemic, as governments must spend larger percentages of their budget on debt repayment.

Changes of Presidents in Latin America and Africa are reactions to external pressure and the impact of sudden changes in allegiance and the orientation of the international situation, especially in the countries of the North, Western economies.

Peru, The Institutional Turmoil

Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard announced on Wednesday that the Pacific Alliance summit, scheduled for December 14 in Peru, has been suspended due to the vote of no confidence in its president Pedro Castillo.

“Given the latest events in Peru, it has been agreed to postpone the Pacific Alliance Summit which was to take place on December 14 in the city of Lima. I will keep you informed,” he said on his official Twitter profile.

Ebrard also pointed out in another message on the same social network that “Mexico regrets the latest events in Peru”. “He hopes for the respect of democracy and human rights for the good of this dear brother people,” he added.

The meeting of the leaders of the group, which is made up of Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru, was to be held from November 24 to 25 in Mexico, but was suspended because Castillo could not leave Peru as part of the investigation against him for corruption.

Mexico was to cede the presidency pro tempore it has held since 2018 and Costa Rica, Ecuador and Honduras were to join the group, founded in 2011.

Peru: President Castillo ousted after trying to dissolve Congress

Peru’s Congress voted to remove President Pedro Castillo from office this Wednesday, December 7, 2022, and replace him with Vice President, Dina Boluarte, shortly after Castillo attempted to dissolve the legislature ahead of a scheduled vote to impeach him. . The national ombudsman’s office called the coup a coup.

Castillo’s attempt to dissolve Congress.

Lawmakers then voted 101 to 6 with 10 abstentions to remove Castillo from office on grounds of “permanent moral incapacity.” Shortly before the vote, Castillo announced he was installing a new emergency government and called on the next round of lawmakers to draft a new constitution. He said in a televised address that he would rule by decree in the meantime, and ordered a nighttime curfew from Wednesday evening.

Castillo also announced that he would make changes to the leadership of the judiciary, the police and the constitutional court. The head of the Peruvian army then resigned, as well as four ministers, including those of foreign affairs and the economy.

Castillo took action as his opponents in Congress headed for a third attempt to impeach him.

The Office of the Ombudsman, an autonomous government institution, said in a statement ahead of the congressional vote that after years of democracy, Peru is in the midst of a constitutional collapse “that can only be described as a sudden blow.” ‘State”.

The office called on Castillo to resign and surrender to legal authorities.

“Mr. Castillo must remember that he was not only elected president of the republic, but also that the people elected representatives for public service,” the statement read. “Castillo’s actions ignore the will of the people and are invalid.”

The Congressional vote called for Vice President Dina Boluarte to assume the presidency. Boluarte via Twitter rejected Castillo’s actions, saying “this aggravates the political and institutional crisis that Peruvian society will have to overcome in strict compliance with the law.”


Liberal entrenchment of inflation and roots of recession
by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

December 25, 2022

THE NEW VERSION OF THE THEATER PLAY LES MISERABLES FACING INFLATION IN CALIFORNIA

They were waiting for the European storm to pass over the global economy and they held interest rates on hold until the Fed and Ms. Lagarde decided it was no longer possible to have and be in the position to wait and see or wait for Godot.

Unfortunately, the Fed’s first increase was a response to the financial obstruction of the UK economy but was met with OPEC’s decision to cut oil production, Russia’s decision to only accept rubble as a means of payment and the decision of the Chinese to make payment only with Yuan for all external transactions. The conglomeration of all these geo-economic actions made the dollar the first higher than the euro in the international market while it also increased its vulnerability to emerging markets as it impacted more than 60% debt-ridden countries that are on the verge of default with Zambia, Sri Lanka and Ghana at the forefront of full default.

The recession was no longer on the periphery of Western economies, it was spreading beyond the surge in inflation of energy, commodities and the accessibility of basic foodstuffs by many countries.

Also, Japan has always played the role of antechamber and echo chamber for the American economy since the Reaganomics and Economic School of the Chicago Boys.

The rest of the world is the hellish heat of inflation

An inflation that was stored like a volcano once the firm ground of all decisions made by financial and government agencies on the western side of history, pursued liberalism erupted in flames and lava covering the rest of the global economy and the price of energy produced combined with the disruptive nature of all diseases have smoothed the way to stagflation to take up residence in the best of the best financial and economic houses which is the value of manufactured goods, the value added to primary goods by the international division of technological and logistical labor and the continual decline in the value of commodities and primary goods from the south.

The subsequent division between the nations has the same line that divided the Bourgeois Townspeople and financiers and the peasant serfs sold with the land as part of the value of the land which depreciated considering the interest charged by the Bourg-bankers to land owners. far remained cloistered in what was called the Faux-Bourg, Faubourg on the outskirts of the Center, that is to say the Place du Marché of the City where monetary circulation is the main framework for commercial transactions while the Faubourg more is about barter as a method of exchange that adds more dependence to the Central Market of Merchant Boroughs, it is these classes that were the first investors in the next industrialization of the Bourg through first the craftsmen and the corporations before separating more from the skills and capacities of the personnel and becoming the own of the productive mechanisms which made them become the extension of the production massive mechanics. system that takes individual initiative or collaborative craft team.

Such separation and the resulting abuses to make it acceptable to this new class of workers who at this time period have only one thing but their Clog – Country Wooden Shoe – to stop this crushing of their appropriation of theirs. labor or the product they produce. They had to throw their wooden clogs – clog into the machine so they could take a break. A strategy that gave us the name Sabotage was the age of the reverse Sabot of the means and methods of production.

Diseases and the decrease in agricultural production added to the continual rural exodus have made the condition of the people who rely only on the strength of arms and hands to beg for bread:

TELL THEM NOT TO THROW AWAY THE CRUST OF THE CAKE SO THEY WON’T BE HUNGRY ANY MORE

– Sentence of Marie-Antoinette distorted over time.

A long time ago, the USA and the West where we began to specialize in the Daily Production of JEAN VALJEAN AND THE MISERABLES by our Great Victor Hugo, it was the time of the “Huguenots = Huge money but you got not” in the USA.

In the United States, in California, we are making a new food market robot and it is called:

new superhero named jean valjean resulting from inflation and especially the price of bread as it was at the time of the miserables

The Ciabatta Bread – Baguette – Batard named Bastar is priced between 5 dollars to 8 dollars, and guess what…

Basically, the price of 35 dozen eggs is over $100, which means one egg costs $2.8571.

We invoke Hashem God and Allah when we are in difficulty, I mean apart from trouble that despite having flour, water and salt and a hot oven, we cannot make dough and we lack of wheat, Ukraine the Granary of the liberal Western Empire and Africa, as North Africa used to be – called Mauretania the Granary of the Roman Empire.

The shortage of wheat has caused so many changes of government and empire and with Ukraine it is losing the transfer of wheat to the rest of the world and with this wheat it is impacting the flow of money and l use of the dollar for these products. So, well bro, we haven’t come out of the mill yet and we’re cooked before we grind the dough out of order despite all we’ve taken Hashem, God and Allah, and this time against our own wishes, getting into trouble to make bread, what a new pain to wish yourself to be engulfed in trouble and all this to supply and monetize it in wheat, in tomorrow’s money, today, while waiting for Godot and being in difficulty, we eat dry bread, French toast without eggs, and as they say,

Like you can’t be a baker or like the former French Prime Minister who got into trouble with all of France or like a baker who makes balls in a bread kneader, then you can always try to be a cook

Also, as they say: if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen and let the Palos bake their own bread without dirtying or burning their ovens.

Hasta la Vista Hermano and Bon Appétit. It’s not just boiling but burning inflation

In Africa, we are stocking up on Aces and we are going to starve our people to serve and feed their Gargantuan Croissant Appétit which has no limits

WHERE IS BEEF FOR AFRICA?

African states feed the debtors and starve losing their own appetite waiting for supplies and suppliers if not cooks from outside who will bring for them the means and resources for their productive, operational and logistical infrastructure and in the upstream supply chain of raw and peripheral materials and packaging at all stages of the transfer and exchange of goods and intermediate products from source to distribution and direct and indirect sale of the final product. Africa remains hungry for the feeding from outside of its own frontiers while it has all the natural resources and primary goods to feed any industry not only in Africa but all around the world and that is why Africa is actually the hub and the magnet of these countries from the Americas, Europe and Asia are rushing and competing for a spot under the African Sun.

European Central Bank Challenged by Eurozone, Euro, Inflation and Recession

 October 17, 2022  Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

Continue Reading

Martin ANOTA 
FMI (2007), « Globalization and inequality », in World Economic Outlook, chapitre 4, octobre.
HELPMAN, Elhanan, Oleg ITSKHOKI, Marc MUENDER & Stephen REDDING (2012), « Trade and inequality : From theory to estimation », in VoxEU.org, 20 mai.
PAVCNIK, Nina (2011), « Globalization and within-country income inequality », in Making Globalization Socially Sustainable, rapport de l’OIT et de l’OMC, chapitre 7, septembre.

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Oakland California – USA 15 Janvier 2021
Sciences Po, Grenoble
Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, Paris
Université de la Sorbonne, Paris III

European Central Bank Challenged by Eurozone, Euro, Inflation and Recession

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Sciences Po, Grenoble
Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, Paris, Université de la Sorbonne, Paris III

Updated with new Intro on 2/4/2023

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui • Global Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRI

Christine LagardeChère Madame la Présidente
This year used to be designated as the year when the rate of inflation will be reduced to 2% and it is not happening.
But the interest rate is pushed slowly up and the price for the energy is skyrocketing and the laying off is a deluge while the most advanced economies all they found as remedy is to tighten the belt and the pension and the retirement are the first victims of such policy that used to be a condition for loans given to the Third World countries.
C’est le Retour de la Manivelle and the Boomerang Effect that is taking place that will be succeeded by the Domino Effect at the level of business operations and value added chain cycles. … Read more


Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central Bank

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Global Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRIGlobal Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRI Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central Bank My first question is when a Bank located in Europe can control … Continue reading Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central BankTate Yoko Research Institute


One of the initial research conducted on the European Monetary System and published in 1992 at Golden Gate University Magazine by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

Synopsis & Introduction

Christine Lagarde and European Monetary Policy

Failures of the European Central Bank, an Invitation to the Recession

Several months earlier, I had written articles on the soft descent into recession through the positions of Madame Christine Lagarde and the lack of financial clarity of the decisions she had continued to promote which gave the impression that she has not completely let go of her bad reactions and recommendations made to developing countries during her presence at the head of the International Monetary Fund, which she inherited as a gift following an accident in the history of the New York Waltzes by Strauss.


Changing World Economy

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Oakland California – USA 15 Janvier 2021 Work and Research by Said El Mansour Cherkaoui on Latin America L’Accord de libre-échange nord-américain (ALÉNA) – … Continue reading Said El Mansour Cherkaoui and Latin America GLOBALLEVERAGE Amérique Latine: Secteur Informel, Commerce Électronique et Subcapitalisme Le secteur informel du Pérou, du Brésil, de la Colombie comme au…Continue Reading →


Mrs Christine Lagarde must take on a purely European mission and not imitate the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and follow the trajectory traced by the American authorities with regard to the current conflicting economic situation into which Europe in the aftermath of the War between Russia and Ukraine.

Destroy to Build, Anarchy in Human Nature Driven by Profit at All Costs and in All Directions with no alternative but the Race for Positioning in Pole Position and at the Vanguard of the Market to effectively direct, orient and dictate the very conditions proper of this Market which should be open given the ultra-liberal ideology which structures it internally as it conditions the pace of its external relations.

Several of these aspects I had discussed in the articles in this Dossier:


Honorable Christine Lagarde – 22/7/2022 European Central Bank

Today we took our latest monetary policy decisions:
🔵 We raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, a further step in normalising our monetary policy
🔵 More rate hikes will come. They will depend on how we see the economy and inflation developing
🔵 We also agreed on a new instrument to make sure that our policy smoothly reaches all of the euro area
For more on our decisions and what we looked at when taking them, swipe ⬅️

or visit our website https://lnkd.in/eq8hpd6Y

Yesterday we raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years. Here are three ways to find out more about our decisions:

1️⃣ Read our explainer, which sets out why we have raised rates https://lnkd.in/eQXvPUfK
2️⃣ Check out our visual statement, which explains our decisions in easy-to-understand language  https://lnkd.in/enXtYSXE
3️⃣ Listen to #TheECBPodcast, where I explain the reasoning behind the hike  https://t.co/Y1KpRDqueF

📸 by Sanziana Perju/ECB


Eurozone: Money and Inflation

Christine Lagarde Presidente European Central Bank Russia is not alone and there is China, India, South Africa and Brazil, the BRICS are building a wall of protection against any financial impediments against Russia. Too bad, Ms. Christine Lagarde, the inflation will find a warm welcoming nest in these sanctions where to procreate and expand not only in…Continue Reading → November 2, 2021


6/9/2022

Our prior and predictive work on the Inflation and Staginflation in Europe and the economies linked to the Supply Chain coming and going out of European Countries.


European Central Bank

🆕📈 #OECD#inflation rises to 🔟.5⃣% in September 2022, with inflation pressures broadening beyond food and energy in most countries.

Find out more ⤵️
https://fal.cn/3tm8R

#쮋 ay’s top news 🆕 The latest #OECD #EconomicOutlook has been released:

#Russia’s war against #Ukraine will substantially slow the global economic recovery & push up #inflation.

Based on our projections, we expect OECD inflation to rise to nearly 9% this year. 💶📈

The world is set to pay a high price because of this #war. Read it here ⤵️ oe.cd/EOjun22


In Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on Friday July 22, 2022 to allow export of grains through the ports of the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations clearing the way for exporting millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain — as well as Russian grain and fertilizer — which can alleviate the food crisis that had threatened food security around the world.


The deal will enable Ukraine to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural products that have been stuck in Black Sea ports due to the war. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, this Russia-Ukraine deal is for $10 billion worth of grain that will be available for sale with roughly 20 million tons of last year’s harvest that can now be exported.

In the same token, the United States pledged to provide more military support to Ukraine with 270 millions of additional financing for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine. In this total financial aid, Drones will represent $100 millions while the sending of jet fighters is still in consideration as an option for the long term.


This is an updated version – Dated April 14, 2022 – 2:41 AM Ramadan Oblige – Pacific Time – Peace

European Central Bank

European Central Bank

Today we took our latest monetary policy decisions. What are they and what did we look at when taking them?
⚫️ The war in Ukraine is severely affecting the economy. In the near future, the economy will grow more slowly
⚫️ The war is creating new supply bottlenecks. These add to the difficulties for supply chains caused by recent pandemic measures in Asia. This is disrupting production in some sectors
⚫️ Inflation has increased significantly and will stay high over the coming months. Energy prices are by far the most important reason for this
⚫️ Our policy has to stay flexible and keep options open. Any change will depend on how the economy evolves and how we assess the outlook. We expect to conclude net asset purchases under our asset purchase programme in the third quarter of this year

Read more https://lnkd.in/erNK7jHs


RESPONSE OF Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

European Central Bank


Ms. Christine Lagarde with all respect to the employees of the European Central Bank, in France there are two adages that we used in our Travaux Pratiques at Sciences Po Grenoble Section Eco-Fi like you did in Sciences Po Aix

🌐 Quand le Beaujolais nouveau est là, tout va 
🌐 Quand le Bâtiment va, tout va.
Adage populaire datant du 19e siècle pr Martin Nadaud, maçon devenu député puis préfet

In other words, Beaujolais means consumption and construction that are increase the income of the consumers, control the inflation, reduce the bottlenecks of the supply chain management
In other words, Bâtiment means infrastructure, budget, stimulation of the growth, creation of jobs and investment in areas of higher value added through workforce development and insertion

Other economic and productive areas can be developed through stimulation of the local demands along budgetary allocations from the regional authorities like from European Central Bank and other financial institutions to develop industries and productions that can be a substitution for importations $200 million was authorized over the weekend adding the $800 million, Biden administration has committed $1 billion in aid to Ukraine


‘Living in a fantasy’: euro’s founding father rebukes ECB over inflation response

Joseph R. out of network 3rd+Real Estate / Equity / Quant Risk

The surreal lonely journey of the ECB under the leadership of Mrs. Lagarde towards inflationary delirium has already put the euro on the path of #liraization and is posing a substantial risk for European cohesion.
➡️ An unprecedented #failure of the ECB under the leadership of Mrs. Lagarde (reminder: once convicted on criminal charges of negligence for misuse of public funds) to act on it’s mandatory obligation is an embarrassing testimony to policy failure multiplied by institutional governance failure.
➡️ The #politicized reluctance to act in on primary mandate exposes the ordinary hard-working citizens to a hufe loss of purchasing power on their life-long retirement/insurance savings, income and social security benefits. The last CPI #inflation🚀 reading is 7.5% (higher locally and on PPI basis). 🗣 “The inflation data is speaking a clear language. The monetary policy may not miss the opportunity to counteract in timely maner” (Dr. J.Nagel, German CB on 01.04.2022)

➡️ “Living in a fantasy” 🦄 https://todayuknews.com/economy/living-in-a-fantasy-euros-founding-father-rebukes-ecb-over-inflation-response/

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-5.png

‘Living in a fantasy’: euro’s founding father rebukes ECB over inflati… todayuknews.com


Said El Mansour Cherkaouisaidcherkaoui24@gmail.com

This article is another confirmation of my warnings and writings on what is going to be faced as spiral and trendy inflationary curbes not just by the European Central Bank but by the entire financial institutions and the respective countries and economies where they conduct their operations, investments and transactions and tranfers.

The war is expected to have a considerable impact on the global economy, and especially on the European economy, I told Phileleftheros. The overall impact will very much depend on how long the war lasts.
 
In the short term, it will likely lower euro area growth and push up inflation through:
 
➡️ higher energy and commodity prices
➡️ lower consumer confidence 
➡️ disruptions to international trade
 
Our monetary policy decisions and the path of normalisation are entirely data-dependent. Now more than ever, we need optionality in our policy.
 
Read the full interview https://lnkd.in/dJ4vzJDC


Christine Lagarde assessments and declarations

Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank

Christine Lagarde

The pandemic has been a challenge like no other and I’m glad to say that the euro area economy is now firmly in recovery mode.

Two years ago, I started my term as ECB President. It has been very different from what I expected!

In addition to the response to pandemic, there are some other areas of progress that I’m particularly proud of:

1️⃣ Our strategy review, completed in July, which provides a strong foundation for how we will conduct monetary policy in the years ahead.

2️⃣ Our climate change roadmap which sets out how we can take climate risks into account when making our policy decisions.

3️⃣ Our decision to launch the investigative phase of a digital euro project – it will prepare us for Europe’s digital future.

Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank • 5 months ago

Two years ago, I started my term as ECB President. It has been very different from what I expected!


Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank

Christine Lagarde on supply bottlenecks as one of the elements currently pushing up inflation.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank speaks at a news conference on the outcome of the Governing Council meeting, in Frankfurt, Germany, October 28, 2021.

Watch again:


Watch again: President Christine Lagarde on supply bottlenecks as one of the elements currently pushing up inflation.


Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.

Ms. Christine LagardeEuropean Central Bank

The European Monetary Policy needs to have an universal aim and not just to be limited to the members of the Eurozone.

Tightening credit standards when challenges exist is accentuating the pressure on productivity and growth. Non performing loans for their amortizations can be sold by auctions.

The ECB can play a central role in the integration of Africa given its raison d’etre that is the process of Europe Integration.

Actually with the surge of Fintech and drive toward digital monetization, the European Central Bank should be at the forefront of such technological moves that can support economic growth and job creation while increasing the profitability and keeping prices stable in Africa.

The instruments presently used by the European Central Bank need to increase the areas of their operations and implementations to expand the monetary policy outside of the Eurozone.

This is feasible through the mechanisms of foreign exchange operations, management of foreign currency reserves, and as aforementioned integrate the operations of the European Central Bank in payment systems such as the ones provided by Fintech allowing transnational operations and in the first place within Africa.

Now for your sweet-short explanation on the bottlenecks, you really make me laugh. It is something we listen to at the Sidewalk Radio not from your level.

So if we want to find solutions at the level of Radio Hood, pas de tire-bouchon for the bottlenecks you have just to do like the French Hussards, faire sauter le bouchon avec un coup de sabre et voila plus de bottlenecks.

Pas mal Madame Lagarde, En garde Fendez vous comme les 3 Masterquaires.

Concerning your declaration on the Supply Chain Management, there is a large difference between what the factories can produce and when they produce it which you did not elaborate at all on this operational productivity and supply.

Second, at the level of transport logistics it is not just the maritime cargo, there are other means and vectors of transportation.

For the maritime side, I will just give you an example of my writings on how the Port of Oakland is tackling such issue with tack, here my article on this:


Port of Oakland: Giant Cranes Raised Why?

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui March 12, 2021 … Continue reading

Germany seeks to wean itself off Russian energy imports | News | DW | 25.03.2022

Economy Minister Robert Habeck has announced a plan to halve Russian oil intake by the summer. 

Multiple Sources: dw, jsi/nm (AFP, Reuters, dpa, AP)


Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.

First of all, a precision shoud be underlined here that is may be influencing the contradictory decisions you are actually implementing


Attn.: Christine Lagarde

You graduate from Aix and me from Grenoble, same section: Economie et Finance, we had better teachers and profs at Sciences Po Grenoble than what you had at Sciences Po Aix because we were closer to Fondation Nationale Sciences Politiques Paris without be Haughty, I graduated before you when France could give and provide the best education by eminent minds.


Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said earlier the week of 4/3/2022 that “three main factors are likely to take inflation higher” going forward.

“Energy prices are expected to stay higher for longer,” “pressure on food inflation is likely to increase,” and “global manufacturing bottlenecks are likely to persist in certain sectors.”

Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.

“Households are becoming more pessimistic and could cut back on spending,” Lagarde said in a speech in Cyprus on Wednesday March 30. 2022.

“Soaring energy costs sparked by the war in Ukraine have caused a surge in consumer prices within the eurozone, the EU’s statistics agency said on Friday 4/1/2022. Annual inflation in the eurozone reached 7.5% in March, up from 5.9% in February, Eurostat reported. It is the fifth straight month that inflation in the eurozone has set a record. Energy prices increased 44.7% in March, up from 32% in February, according to the Eurostat, as the European Union [European Commission] found itself embroiled in an oil-and-gas crunch caused by tensions with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. The rise in inflation is increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to raise its key interest rate.

Here we go at last recognized the failure of her own policy:

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned Wednesday 30 March, 2022 that a prolonged Ukraine conflict will mean the cost of living will continue to soar, hampering hopes of a post-COVID recovery.”

Response of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.


The Inflation is here and will endure with Russia Requesting the use of Rubles in all international purchases and China will follow this course and next is India. It is just a matter of time that BRICS Development Bank will advance its pawn toward becoming a global player in the international finance space with no borders like all these western based international financial institutions.

Currently the and what Ms. Presidente Christine Lagarde is pursuing “Monetarist Policy” added to the reasons of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions are all playing in the field of the rise and consolidation of alternative and parallel financial institution coming from emerging economies and their followers. Whatever the importance of these reactions, there a disruptive impact and dispersion as well as diversion of financial transactions that are going to change the international financial system and all the related regional banks not only as regulator of the market but more importantly as a hub of all the financial transactions related to international trade and the value of goods exchanged.


Russia★China & Europe★USA

Russia wants “unfriendly countries” to pay for Russian natural gas in Rubles. That’s a new directive from President Vladimir Putin … Continue Reading →


Russia’s invasion of its neighbor and the sanctions that followed have meant spiraling energy costs across the EU. Inflation in Germany is at its highest since reunification in 1990.

These are numbers that any Media outlet can verify by having their own estimates and calculations. In fact, on Friday April 1, 2022, Germany’s largest banking institution said rising inflation could be hard to stem because of an energy price shock sparked by sanctions that are exacerbating supply chain problems.

“The rhino in the room has been unleashed and may now prove difficult to stop,” Deutsche Bank Chief Investment Officer Christian Nolting said in a research note, adding that consumer price rises in the United States had breached 7%.

“Longer-term issues such as the shrinking workforce and the growing share of GDP generated by labor-intensive services are likely to remain and inflation is therefore unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic level in the years to come.”

“In the developed economies, already elevated inflation rates may now be driven even higher, given the conflict-induced oil and gas price shock. Sanctions, as well as businesses’ halting their operations in Russia, are exacerbating supply chain problems.” Nolting said economic growth in the United States would outstrip that of the eurozone in 2022 and 2023 because of the conflict in Ukraine and the European Union’s dependence on energy imports.


Attn.: Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank

For sure that oil surge in price has a direct impact on the inflation push up through:
➡️ higher energy and commodity prices
➡️ lower consumer confidence IN BIZZARE BAZZZAR
➡️ disruptions to international trade NOT NEW

Inflation came from the monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank since 5 years ago and from factors that were not tackled during their rise, including the Pandemic

So where is the contingency strategy?

Risks have not completely disappeared, because progress in immunization remained slow in many parts of the world, pressures on global supply chains and rising prices for energy posed new challenges to the strength of the recovery and the outlook for inflation / THIS ASSESSMENT IS FROM 2021.

Since 1 November 2019 you are at the ECB So please do not blame the present time.

Christine Lagarde Presidente European Central Bank

Russia is not alone and there is China, India, South Africa and Brazil, the BRICS are building a wall of protection against any financial impediments against Russia.

Too bad, Ms. Christine Lagarde, the inflation will find a warm welcoming nest in these sanctions where to procreate and expand not only in Europe but to the trade partners of the European Countries. Energy prices are rising, threatening household budgets and corporate profits (except for the energy sector). In addition, the expected disruption of sanctions against Russia and Belarus will impact trade flows, which could further dampen the global economy, and Europe will be the first to suffer.

Russia was dependent on SWIFT, some 300 Russian banks and other financial institutions use the SWIFT system, and Russia is ranked second (behind the United States) in number of users of this platform. The reason for the high level of dependence stems from Russian energy exports which are denominated in US dollars. For this, the European Commission was reluctant to ban #Russia from SWIFT due to the dramatic impact it would have – on oil prices. Some fear this will create systemic global financial risk. For Russia, given its geographical location and the diversity of its international partners and the support it currently receives from China for its international transactions, the impact expected and even qualified as “Nuclear Financial Bomb” by Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy,  will not have the effects desired or expected by the rest of the Western European Leaders.


Update: April 3, 2022 – 12:37 AM Pacific Time Originally published at LinkedIn on August 31, 2015: Said El Mansour

BRICS and the Building of Financial Great Wall – 🌎 ★ GLOBAL 🌎★🌎 LEVERAGE ★ 🌎


In fact, Russia has not been completely banned from SWIFT entirely – the targets of the bans are selected aiming specific banks, which appears to be intended to make it more difficult to avoid previous sanctions imposed on these banks. Energy exports are apparently excluded from these sanctions, although there is a risk at the level of each transaction of the energy exports that ca be more difficult to negotiate and settle, which can always cause the rate of inflation to implode, especially for energy, metal and grain prices.

Better to find other financial instruments to support the Growth and the Productivity of European Firms especially the Women, Mid Sized and Small companies that they still have to compete at the level of the international market with the oligopolies and the conglomerates that do not respect any national border, just remember what has predicted JJSS in his famous plaidoyer for the construction of Europe with allegiance to these giants transnational challenges.

Ms. Christine Lagarde with the financial policies you have been advocating in regards to the inflation and the position you took, that is “Wait and See” is an evidence that you have not completely turned the page of the IMF and the World Bank influences in designing strategies of recovery and stimulation of growth that they included in their conditionalities toward developing countries and now you are applying for European countries.

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D. – Update 3/5/2022


Monetarism, Central Bank and Developmentalism

European Central Bank


Updated 12/1/2021

KEY POINTS

Euro zone inflation rises to 4.1% for October, hitting a new 13-year high

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.


Madame la Présidente de European Central Bank

  • The European Monetary Policy needs to have an universal aim and not just to be limited to the members of the Eurozone.
  • Tightening credit standards when challenges exist is accentuating the pressure on productivity and growth. Non performing loans for their amortizations can be sold by auctions.
  • The ECB can play a central role in the integration of Africa given its raison d’etre that is the process of Europe Integration.
  • Actually with the surge of Fintech and drive toward digital monetization, the European Central Bank should be at the forefront of such technological moves that can support economic growth and job creation while increasing the profitability and keeping prices stable in Africa.
  • The instruments presently used by the European Central Bank need to increase the areas of their operations and implementations to expand the monetary policy outside of the Eurozone. This is feasible through the mechanisms of foreign exchange operations, management of foreign currency reserves, and as aforementioned integrate the operations of the European Central Bank in payment systems such as the ones provided by Fintech allowing transnational operations and in the first place within Africa.
  • Finally, a voice is expressed on the reasons for the passage and the continual retrograde of the formerly colonized countries from the level of developing countries to the level of underdeveloped countries and currently sinking into the level of subcapitalist countries.
  • This subcapitalization was accentuated by the globalization of direct and indirect foreign investments and their impact on social structuring and the consolidation of local elites which facilitate the internalization of the demands of international financiers. Poverty has consolidated and spread like an economic virus in subcapitalist societies weakening their participation in world growth thus accentuating recessions and even current inflation.
  • The manipulation of the prices of raw materials as well as the prices of consumer products is the result of this complicity between the supporters of the Global Supply Chain and these governing elites, including national banks and transnational financial institutions. The United States has launched an investigation into this matter.
  • Likewise, the Eurozone is witnessing an inflation rate of 4.9% from one year to the next, which has never been the case since the launch of the euro in 1999.
  • Finally a voice is talking about the reasons how formerly colonized countries emigrated from the level of developing countries to the level of underdeveloped countries to reach actually the statute and the privilege of currently sinking into the deep subcapitalism.

Euro zone inflation figures for November are historic. At 4.9% year-on-year, European inflation has never reached such levels since the launch of the euro in 1999. Rising commodity prices (energy prices rose 27% on year in November), combined with strong economic growth and the emergence of bottlenecks in industry continue to explain this an extraordinary return of inflation that no one believed until a few months ago. Recall that the dominant theme before the Covid crisis in early 2020 was the risk of deflation which had threatened the United States and Europe, like Japan, for decades.

With such figures the dilemma of the ECB and all the central banks becomes more and more untenable. How to stop extreme monetary policies of zero interest rates along with liquidity injections in order to fight against this inflationary peril can generate high risk of recession and threatened purchasing power and consumption.

Neither the ECB nor any other central bank has yet made a decision, and is unlikely to do so quickly given the uncertainties over the Omicron variant and its potential consequences for growth and financial markets.

The official objective of the ECB is still … 2%, while another major risk will then appear: the impact of massive rate hikes on debt service. If interest rates are skyrocketing, situation will get out of control and will require a budgetary austerity.

FORECASTING IN TIME OF PEACE AND WRONGLY

Updated 27/11/2021

Christine Lagarde • President of the European Central Bank 19h • Edited • 19 hours ago

We do not expect the current rise in inflation to last, I explained in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung editor Gerald Braunberger.

A couple of other important points covered:

➡️ If we at the European Central Bank were to tighten monetary policy now, we would expect to see the impact in 18 months’ time. But our forecasts show inflation falling back by then.

We would cause unemployment and not have countered the current high inflation. I would find that wrong.

➡️ Interest rates can rise when we see inflation reaching our 2% target over the medium term, durably and sustainably – meaning not just for a short period of time.

Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger, Dennis Kremer and Christian Siedenbiedel on 23 November and published on 26 November 2021

Madame Lagarde, inflation rates are increasing around the world. Inflation in the United States is 6.2%, while in Germany a rate of close to 6% is expected for November. Is inflation spiralling out of control?

At the European Central Bank we are of course monitoring that very closely. And not only because our primary objective is maintaining price stability and inflation is a crucial indicator of that. But also because we know that inflation affects people. Those who are less privileged and less well off are the ones who suffer the most from inflation. That’s why we need to keep looking at it very carefully.

Do you feel any effects of rising inflation in your own daily life?

Of course, the rise in energy prices is the most noticeable. After all, energy price inflation now accounts for around half of the high inflation rates. You can’t help noticing the price increase when you fill up your tank at a petrol station or buy heating oil for the winter. As a French person, I keep a close eye on the prices for good bread at the bakery. That stands out at the moment and is making many people worried – but we expect that this rise in inflation will not last. It will subside next year. We expect that the inflation rates will start to fall from as early as January.

What makes you so sure? Won’t there be second-round effects, if the trade unions demand higher wages to compensate for the higher prices?

Judging by what we know from surveys of employers and trade unions so far, no strong inflationary pressure is to be expected from that front for the time being. The negotiated wage settlements have been very moderate so far. For next year, somewhat higher wage demands are partly to be expected. But based on what we are seeing, the settlements should not be on a scale that might trigger a wage-price spiral.

Do you not think that employees could become nervous and nonetheless demand compensation for inflation if inflation rates now hit a level that has not been seen for many years?

That does not seem to be the case at the moment. And if we look at inflation expectations, both those which can be derived from the financial markets and those resulting from surveys, then most people do not expect higher inflation in the longer term. Inflation expectations have risen, but they are below our inflation target of 2%. We don’t see any de-anchoring of inflation expectations.

Do you personally never have any doubts that inflation might persist for longer than your experts are currently predicting?

I ask myself this question again and again. To answer it you have to consider what is driving the current high rates of inflation. I would distinguish three groups of driving factors. The first are statistical base effects which are related to the pandemic, such as the VAT reduction in Germany last year and its reversal, which are now sharply pushing up the price increase relative to the previous year. Similar passing pandemic effects can be seen in respect of package holidays, for example. These factors will automatically disappear next year, as they will fall out of the year-on-year comparison. Supply bottlenecks are a second group of drivers. Demand surged after the end of the first lockdown whereas supply is still constrained. These bottlenecks in, say, computer chips, containers and road haulage capacity are obviously persisting for longer than we had initially thought. But the situation will gradually improve next year in that respect too. The third group is energy prices. We expect that energy price developments will at least stabilise next year.

But surely nobody can know for certain how oil prices, say, will develop next year?

We at least see good reasons why the strong price increase in energy will not last into the second half of 2022. There is in any case no expectation in the oil futures markets that the price increase will continue. But we are seeking to evaluate and consider as many sources of information on this topic as we can.

Read the full conversation Click here

Christine Lagarde • FollowingPresident of the European Central Bank 2w • 2 weeks ago

At today’s Eurogroup meeting we discussed the positive economic outlook in the euro area, with monetary and fiscal policies supporting a strong recovery. We are confident that the current higher inflation is transitory. We also exchanged views on the goals of a digital euro.


Response of / Reponse de Said El Mansour Cherkaoui

In a world subdivided with respect to natural resources and by the degree of participation in the aggregate supply and demand, the signs of the crisis represent only indicators for the international financial institutions whose firm belief is that the market will eventually be capable of correcting its excesses, even going so far as to adopt the “new paradigm” thesis.

With this self-assurance based on the belief that growth now passes through increasingly long economic cycles and swift oscillations with higher development rates, with low inflation and increased productivity, thanks to efficiency and innovation brought about by new technologies.

Rostow would be delighted and Keynes would be impressed while Friedman would be relieved, all without any consideration for the development of the human factor.

For these decision makers, there are collateral damages in the form of frequent financial misadventures, with all the human and political tragedies that they entail, they remain only inevitable misadventures on the way to the economic El Dorado.

The interest rate serves as a lever such as the “Invisible Hand” which indirectly regulates any market integrated in the financial and commercial world. It is widely accepted that financial instability is deeply rooted in the financial crisis affecting the functioning of markets which imposes recommendations on emerging and developing economies with the sole aim of making them beneficiaries of loans and financial transfers.

These indirect capital movements serve to alleviate the impact of expenditures and deficits resulting from investments undertaken by emerging and developing countries in the establishment of infrastructure and transformative operations in order to be able to compete with their peer countries for the attractivity of foreign direct investments.

The broad incentives and financial facilities offered to foreign investors coupled with the infrastructure spending added to the low return received in exchange for heavy investments and long term depreciation all reduce the income of their treasuries. States of developing economies are thus reduced to reach the ceiling on external debt.

However, some time ago, even the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank recognized that a large number of their interventions did not benefit emerging and developing countries which are going through a very severe crisis, and that the medicine administered in the form of Hiring of consultants had disastrous second-effects and the prescriptions presented in the form of recommendations proved to be poisonous and even final as overdoses.


Some of my publications related to the topic addressed by Presidente Christine Lagarde can be used as complement for my aforementioned comment while presenting the role of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in shaping the evolution of the World Economy with emphasis on the economies of the Southern countries. (The articles are written en Français et/and in English).



Western Diplomacy Blend of Waltz and Petrushka: USA – Europe Union – Russia

Western Diplomacy Blend of Waltz and Petrushka: USA – Europe Union – Russia Loves and jealousies of two figurines: US and EU along with one puppet: Ukraine Bringing Freedom to Ukraine, like liberating Women in Afghanistan and giving the best gift in life to Iraq and Democracy to Libya and Syria, Who is Next Reserve your seat for the next Arab Spring Trip They close … Continue reading Western Diplomacy Blend of Waltz and Petrushka: USA – Europe Union – Russia

Brexit or not Brexit, United Kingdom and European Union in India to Break Ties of the BRICS to Russia

 Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D.  5/5/2022  BRICS (Brazil – Russia – India – China – South Africa)  Russia – India – China triangle In particular, the formation of the BRICS group in 2010 emphasized that “the world is undergoing significant and rapid changes that highlight the need for corresponding transformations of global governance in all relevant areas.” Its members have also argued that … Continue readingBrexit or not Brexit, United Kingdom and European Union in India to Break Ties of the BRICS to Russia

Russia★China & Europe★USA

European Commission As the brutality of the Russian invasion increased, the European Union approved the fifth package of sanctions against the Kremlin’s war machine. These measures are broader and harsher and dig even deeper into the Russian economy. They follow atrocities committed by Russian forces in Bucha and elsewhere in Ukraine under Russian occupation.   They target six main issues:    import of coal from Russia  transactions with 4 … Continue reading Russia★China & Europe★USA

Nationalism Versus Liberalism: War and Finance in Europe

Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on Kyiv and western Ukraine as it prepares to shift focus to the eastern Donbas region. The New York Times says Russia’s strategy seems to involve “degrading” Ukraine’s capabilities across the country before renewing its offensive to the east. Meanwhile, Russia has warned the U.S. and NATO that they risk “unpredictable consequences” by continuing to arm Ukraine with “sensitive” … Continue reading Nationalism Versus Liberalism: War and Finance in Europe

European Central Bank: Eurozone, Money and Inflation

Honorable Christine Lagarde 6/9/2022 Our prior and predictive work on the Inflation and Staginflation in Europe and the economies linked to the Supply Chain coming and going out of European Countries, for more details read more in the following link: European Central Bank: Eurozone, Money and Inflation  AFRICANA ENTREPRISE  ★ GLBAL LEVERAGE ★  MoroccoTech European Commission European Central Bank OECD – OCDE … Continue reading European Central Bank: Eurozone, Money and Inflation

Sanctions Against Russia Oligarch – Billionaires: People Reactions

US seizes Russian oligarch’s yacht The U.S. has taken possession of a superyacht said to be owned by a Russian billionaire and has filed a warrant to seize two private jets owned by another oligarch.View news story 3,855 2,306 comments 647 shares Elmahdi Oummih(He/Him) 1st degree connection1stManaging Director at Medical Device Group 3w Nothing Biden Administration/Congress has said about the Conflict in Ukraine has been … Continue reading Sanctions Against Russia Oligarch – Billionaires: People Reactions

Russian Oil Embargo or in Barco !

EU countries announced last night that they had agreed to a substantial ban on the import of Russian oil. After opposition voiced by Hungary, imports will only be halted on oil that arrives by sea, but the sanctions still account for two-thirds of all Russian oil supplied to the EU. Russia had been delivering 27 percent of the EU’s imported oil and was receiving roughly … Continue reading Russian Oil Embargo or in Barco !

Look at the Roots of Genocide: Russia – Ukraine War of Rhetoric

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Original Title: Crying Genocide: Use and Abuse of Political Rhetoric in Russia and Ukraine MATTHEW KUPFER,  THOMAS DE WAAL JULY 28, 2014 Summary:  The word “genocide” has long been abused in Eastern Europe. In the current Ukraine crisis, such fiery rhetoric is fueling a dangerous conflict and hindering reconciliation. Rinat Akhmetov, a powerful oligarch who had been wavering in the conflict … Continue reading Look at the Roots of Genocide: Russia – Ukraine War of Rhetoric

Changing World Economy

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – USA 15 Janvier 2021 Sciences Po, Grenoble Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, Paris Université de la Sorbonne, Paris III During the 1980s, the differences between non-Western countries and Third World countries became evident with regard to economic changes and progress at the level of the participation in the new industrial division of labor and the implementation of industrial strategy. East … Continue reading

The Bubble Triangle

Written By William Quinn When we started researching historical bubbles, we were surprised by how much the different episodes had in common. They always seemed to occur when there was abundant money or credit, they always seemed to occur in assets that had recently become much easier to buy and sell, and they always involved … Continue reading 


Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D. You ★ Analyst World Affairs ★ Predictive Studies and Formulations ★ Planning and Development ★ United States of America ★ Europe ★ France ★ Morocco ★ China ★ Sub-Saharan Africa ★

📈 📈

Le futur de la cryptomonnaie #Cryptomoney #cryptomonnaie

Réponse of Said El Mansour Cherkaoui, Ph.D. ★

For the moment it is a pure scam like the casinos. A currency which floats without direction, nor productive and growing added value and which is neither based on an monetary reserve.

This reserve should be a surplus of which several interbank transactions verify and sanction, control and increase its transfer base, convertibility [example of Central Banks and LIBOR] and achievements as a form of deposit, exchange, conversion , settlement, loan and support for productions integrated into the international regional, national and interbank exchange circuit.

Add to that, Cryptomania is not used for payment of debts, financial obligations such as taxes.

If all these procedures do not exist in the fiduciary identity and the financial value of Cryptomania, it cannot therefore claim an institutional financial legitimacy and legal monetary .

It is neither the number of participants, nor the level of transactions, nor the amount achieved, nor the slogans and propagandist speeches that will give legitimacy to the Cryptocracy and Cryptorobotech.

Waiting for Godot – Sidna Kdar for better


Crypto Casino Royal – CryptoMania

Posted December 5, 2021 – Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Sciences Po, GrenobleInstitut de Recherche Economique et de Planification, GrenobleInstitut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique Latine, ParisUniversité de la Sorbonne, Paris III Bitcoin plunges overnight – CNN 04/12/2021 – Bitcoin prices plunged overnight to a low of about $43,000. The famous infamous Dame which I baptized as…Continue Reading → December 5, 2021

Eurozone: Money and Inflation

Christine Lagarde Presidente European Central Bank Russia is not alone and there is China, India, South Africa and Brazil, the BRICS are building a wall of protection against any financial impediments against Russia. Too bad, Ms. Christine Lagarde, the inflation will find a warm welcoming nest in these sanctions where to procreate and expand not only in…Continue Reading → November 2, 2021


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Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central Bank

Tate Yoko Research Institute - TRI logo

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Global Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRIGlobal Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRI


One of the results of Operation Kamikaze taken by the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde who following consultative meeting with the International Monetary Fund’s President, she insisted that her mission is to bring the inflation rate to 2.0%. She was Right on the Money Ms. Christine Lagarde, she got the 2.0% increase in the inflation rate that is generalized to all the countries of the OECD:

🆕📈 #OECD #inflation rises to 🔟.5⃣% in September 2022, with inflation pressures broadening beyond food and energy in most countries.

Find out more ⤵️
https://fal.cn/3tm8R


OECD – OCDE 432,251 followers – 6/9/2022 • 19 hours ago

#쮋 ay’s top news 🆕 The latest #OECD #EconomicOutlook has been released:

#Russia’s war against #Ukraine will substantially slow the global economic recovery & push up #inflation. Based on our projections, we expect OECD inflation to rise to nearly 9% this year. 💶📈

The world is set to pay a high price because of this #war. Read it here ⤵️ oe.cd/EOjun22

Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central Bank

My first question is when a Bank located in Europe can control the trends and movements of price within a globalized economy 
 
Would you be capable of dictating to the #opec the pricing and the level of their oil production?
 
How about the Multinationals and the Transnationals entities that have their own strategies and policies in regards to the pricing of their commodities and their final products?
 



There are other circuits of distribution and allocations of resources that have no relation to what Christine Lagarde is striving to reach for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank
 
This level will be another topic of discussion for a next step taken toward bringing inflation back to our medium-term target of 2%
 
The rate of inflation should be thrown from supersonic airplane with no parachute to come down from its actual 2 digit to 2%: Monetary Kamikaze Operation
 
Said Cherkaoui
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui
Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRI

#inflation #recession #unemployment #oil #economy #research #europe #bank #publications



Christine Lagarde • 10/13/2022 •

I spoke to Institute of International Finance CEO and President Tim Adams about bringing inflation back to our medium-term target of 2%.

#IMFMeetings


European Central Bank Challenged by Eurozone, Euro, Inflation and Recession

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Oct 3, 2022

25 years of euro unity

Christine Lagarde  President of the European Central Bank 53 articles Following May 23, 2023 On 1 June 1998, the European Central Bank was established to prepare for the launch of the euro – the world’s largest ever currency changeover. As a lawyer at the time, I remember how frantically we were revising contracts based on foreign … Continue reading

Redefining Banking Globalization

 Mar 20, 2023  Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Dear Readers and Friends: It is our pleasure to share with you this Dossier – Analytical Study addressing the present challenge of the financial system and the banking sector which we have titled: “Redefining Banking Globalization” Which we present it to you in the form and content as: “Dossier – Analytical Study on Cranked Globalization, Tossed Financial Capitalism, Derailed Banking System“. Your comments and suggestions are always welcomed. Please feel free to share our publications with your colleagues, acquaintances and family members including your neighbors. Thank you for your support. … Continue reading

Analyse de BRICS sans y ajouter aucune Brique

La prééminence des banques britanniques telles que Barings et Rothschild Maison de courtage et des banquiers qui retracent leurs profits dans le commerce des armes contingent du commerce mercantiliste du colonialisme ibérique en Amérique latine. Le changement de l’épicentre du commerce mondial avait provoqué des pertes fonctionnelles continuelles à ces systèmes bancaires et monétaires identifiés dans la prétention de domination et de conquête impériale.  Ces changements ont été promulgués d’abord par les courtisanes de la Couronne britannique de Grande-Bretagne qui ont promu l’École classique de pensées économiques qui ont abordé la valeur et l’argent avec Adam Smith et David Ricardo qui ont suscité la réponse de Karl Marx, … Lire la suite


Monetary Kamikaze Operation by the European Central Bank

Said El Mansour Cherkaoui – Global Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRIGlobal Public Relations Manager at Tate Yoko Research Institute – TRI One of the results of Operation Kamikaze taken by the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde who following consultative meeting with the International Monetary Fund’s President, she insisted that … Continue reading

Monetary Policy Process

“Monetary policy is to orient economic activity by regularizing the money supply “ Monetarism, Liberalism and Globalization: US Reactions and Coronavirus Clashes The Aftermath of Coronavirus? Is this a Mathematical Formula or New Readings of Economic State Intervention? Where is the Invisible Hand of the Market? A second lecture more sincere of the works of … Continue reading

Global Finance against Global Energy Market !


Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Research – Publication: NAFTA to CUSMA

 

Evolution of the European Union

The European Union was created in 1993 as the most recent of a progression of institutions that embody a vision of regional integration laid out in a 1946 speech by Winston Churchill: “I see no reason why, under the leadership of the world organization, there should not ultimately arise the United States of Europe, both those of the East and those of the West, which will unify this Continent in a manner never known since the fall of the Roman Empire, and within which all its peoples may dwell together in prosperity, in justice, and in peace.”(3)

For nearly fifty years this image has guided a regional integration effort that has widened from six to fifteen nations and deepened from a narrow technical focus to an ambitious social, political, and economic agenda. The Treaty of Paris, signed in 1951 by France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, founded the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC).(4) The treaty not only pooled and centralized the production of coal and steel, it also introduced the High Authority, the Council of Ministers, the Court of Justice, and the Parliamentary Assembly, all of which remain part of the institutional framework of the much broader EU [that] has subsequently evolved.

The Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957 by the same six nations, established the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM), and the European Economic Community (EEC), which greatly expanded the scope of the ECSC treaty by calling for the dissolution of barriers dividing Europe, the improvement and equalization of living and working standards, the abolition of restrictions on international trade, the removal of obstacles to concerted action among governments, and the enhancement of peace and liberty through closer relations among states. In 1967, the executives of these three European communities were merged. The Single European Act, which went into effect in 1987, was designed to create by 1992 the “single European market” that had been envisioned in the Treaty of Rome but had not been realized, “an area without internal frontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons, services and capitals is ensured”. In 1993 the Treaty on European Union, signed at Maastricht the previous year, entered into force, renaming the expanding web of institutions the European Union.(5) This institutional structure is increasingly state-like with legislative, executive, and judicial branches (Parliament, Commission, Council of Ministers, and Court of Justice); economic institutions (Investment Bank, Central Bank, and Court of Auditors); and a variety of institutions that provide representation for the interests of various groups (Economic and Social Committee, Environmental Agency, Committee on Regions, Ombudsman, and many others). Meanwhile, Britain, Ireland, and Denmark had become members in 1973; Greece in 1981; Portugal and Spain in 1986; and Austria, Finland, and Sweden in 1995. As of 1999, eleven additional countries have applied for EU membership and several others have reached trade agreements with the EU which give them some of the advantages of membership.

Despite this growth, the future of the EU itself remains somewhat uncertain, because considerable opposition has arisen in many member countries as integration has deepened. A long-standing objection of critics is that European integration implies a substantial abdication of national sovereignty because it requires that national law be brought into accordance with EU law and because regional institutions are slowly eclipsing national ones as governing bodies. In fact, the Treaty on European Union was initially rejected by a national referendum in one member country and survived very close votes in several others. Its most controversial elements were the call for a common defense policy and, especially, a monetary union with a single currency that would replace national ones.

It has long been apparent that the continuing liberalization of trade in Europe required a considerably more stable monetary arrangement than the system of freely floating exchange rate that had existed among all developed countries since the demise of the fixed exchange rate system of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s. The most recent attempt at stabilization, the introduction of the currency called the euro, is discussed in greater detail later on. It illustrates that the dilemmas involved in trade, especially those concerning national sovereignty, carry over into the monetary arrangements required to facilitate it. Because of this concern over national sovereignty, not all the EU nations have joined the euro arrangement. Furthermore, because EU members fear that such intensive ties to nations with weaker economies would introduce too much instability, they established criteria for participation in the euro that many of the nations seeking EU membership would not meet. Regional integration is a strategy that attempts to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of trade by very carefully selecting partners in trade and in the institutions that must accompany it.

The Mercantilist Roots of the EU

The presence of trade diversion makes it clear why outside nations typically see the mercantilist face of regional integration rather than its liberal face, which is turned inward. From their standpoint, regionalism not only furthers the classical mercantilist goal of protecting domestic industry, it does so through a classical mercantilist melding of foreign policy concerns with economic aims. Rather than erect trade barriers against all foreign competitors equally, the EU discriminates against nations outside the region, often because they are seen as a threat.

Indeed, from its beginnings, European unification has accelerated whenever threats from outside have been perceived. The early EC was designed to protect Europe against the Soviet military threat posed by a large army and aggressive doctrine as well as the American economic threat posed by large productive capacity and expansionist marketing plans. The Single Market initiative culminating in 1992.

Carlo DiBenedetti called it “a deadline not to be dead” was energized by the economic threat of rapidly growing productivity in Asia and the resulting “Euro-pessimism.” Again we see that nations turn in a mercantilist direction when their industries fear more competitive firms abroad and when their states fear the rising power of rivals. The EU’s goals are no different than those of Queen Elizabeth’s sixteenth-century industrial development or Japan’s postwar export promotion: its uniqueness lies in the regional emphasis of its mercantilism, which can be seen most clearly by contrasting liberal and mercantilist viewpoints on trade diversion.

Whereas liberal theory disapproves of trade diversion because it compromises efficiency, mercantilism finds it perfectly acceptable if it helps to achieve other national goals. Since many values and goals conflict with efficiency, nations may prefer to trade with one country rather than another for several reasons. First, a nation may divert trade in order to benefit an economy whose resulting prosperity produces greater side benefits for it. For example, for reasons of physical proximity and economic integration, Germany is much more likely to gain from the prosperity of France than it is from the prosperity of a nation–for example, Japan or the United States–that is thousands of miles away.

Second, trade diversion under regional integration is reciprocated: Germany diverts its trade toward France, and in exchange, France diverts its trade toward Germany. Third, most European nations are more comfortable with depending upon other Europeans than upon Japan or even the United States. Not only do they share more security concerns with their European neighbors but they also have more common views on issues that always arise in trade matters (e.g., dilemmas involving job security, welfare arrangements, and environmental protection). Furthermore, they can create regional institutions such as those of the EU to cope with whatever conflict may stem from differences in how they respond to trade dilemmas.

The liberal roots of the EU

Despite these undeniable mercantilist motivations, the EU is also deeply rooted in liberal ideas, especially the gains from trade promised by Ricardian theory. For example, the Cecchini report (1988) was instrumental in gathering support for the Single Market initiative by estimating trade gains resulting in a 35 percent boost in GDP. However, gains from specialization and enhanced competition are not the only benefits of the EU seen by liberal theorists.

Economies of scale, which have always been a strong motivation for the smaller countries of Europe, were especially visible in the ECSC. Because steelmaking requires large-scale plants and equipment that are efficient only when producing large volumes of output, a steel industry could never emerge in a small country unless a firm could be guaranteed access to the larger European market. The ECSC provided that guarantee in the form of the pledges by European governments not to interfere with free trade in these goods. The result was a key industry with production facilities scattered among different countries, each dependent on other nations to provide both demand for the final product and part of the supply capacity. A side benefit of this arrangement was the fulfillment of the liberal dream of an interdependence that would prevent war by making it suicidal.

In fact, the EU’s economic institutions were constructed for a political purpose. The mission of European integration, as stated in the preamble to the ECSC treaty, is to “substitute for age-old rivalries the merger of their essential interests; to create, by establishing an economic community, the basis for a broader and deeper community among peoples long divided by bloody conflicts; and to lay the foundations for institutions which will give direction to a destiny henceforward shared.” Thus, the ECSC was an innovative form of peace treaty, designed, in the words of Robert Schuman, to “make it plain that any war between France and Germany becomes, not merely unthinkable, but materially impossible.” In the aftermath of two devastating wars in the previous thirty years–which more conventional tools of international politics such as the European balance of power, the League of Nations, and international law could not prevent–European nations were willing to tolerate the erosion of national autonomy and self-sufficiency implied by interdependence in order to weaken the nationalism that had provoked so much violence.

The Political Roots of the European Union

Throughout its history, European integration has been seen as a means of escaping the liberal and mercantilist horns of trade dilemmas by providing a regional level of governance to deal with common problems that no single nation could solve. For example, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), born in 1962, embraced a concern with the distributional dilemma of trade that would have been at home in parliamentary debates of the eighteenth century: Its goals included “the assurance that those working in agriculture will enjoy a standard of living comparable to that enjoyed by workers in other sectors.” Because it was evident as early as 1951 that this motivation implied an ambitious institutional design, the Treaty of Paris went well beyond limited economic objectives to create the executive and legislative institutions that remain at the heart of the contemporary EU. Later, the Treaty of Rome’s social and political provisions–which included the creation of the Economic and Social Committee to provide a strong voice for workers, employers, consumers, and academics–made the EC much more than a mechanism for advancing free trade.

These arrangements were a direct outgrowth of the values and theories that influenced national economic policies in Europe, especially where working-class political parties of the left came to power – Labour in Britain, Social Democrats in Germany and Scandinavia, and Socialists in France, Italy, and Spain. Rooted in powerful trade union movements, those parties embraced values of egalitarianism that emphasized the welfare and security of workers and shared the conviction that it was safer to entrust these goals to the state than to free markets. They erected welfare states to provide institutional protection against the vagaries of markets that were quite distinct from the more laissez-faire arrangements in the United States. For example, vacations, maternity leave, and health insurance, which are all voluntary fringe benefits in the United States, are determined by law in most EU states.

Furthermore, because some constitutions list the right to work among human rights, the ability of firms to hire and fire workers is sharply constrained. When European national governments spend an average of 25 percent of GDP on social protection, it is hardly a surprise that an agreement to increase trade would include a provision to compensate those who would lose in the resulting dislocations. Indeed, the Social Fund, created in 1951 to finance worker retraining and relocation necessitated by the ECSC and now charged with aiding trade-damaged geographic regions, has become the second largest expenditure in the EU budget (behind agriculture).

The dilemmas posed by exchange-rate policy

Since the collapse of the European Monetary System’s Exchange Rate Mechanism(ERM) in 1992, exchange-rate policy has been at the center of the trade dilemmas concerning national sovereignty that have threatened to derail further integration. As traditional trade barriers have diminished, the trade-dampening effects of a system of multiple currencies have acquired increasing visibility. The most obvious effects are the simple transaction costs associated with currency exchanges: A consumer purchasing goods made in another country must pay the costs of exchanging the currency of his or her country for that of the nation in which the good was produced. Some costs are direct and visible, as when tourists pay a fee to a foreign-exchange broker; others are born by businesses and passed along invisibly to consumers. In the mid-1990s, currency conversion alone cost European business $15 billion per year, and transaction costs associated with currency exchanges have been estimated to waste 2 percent of the value of trade. Firms also had to maintain accounting systems and bank balances in several currency units simultaneously and cope with multiple currencies in legal contracts, taxation, and strategic planning.

Moreover, when currencies are traded freely in foreign exchange markets, natural variations in supply and demand cause their values to fluctuate unpredictably, sometimes in wild swings of sentiment. This uncertainty concerning future currency valuations represented a major risk for businesses trying to operate across the European market. Long-term production and marketing plans were complicated because firms could not predict costs and revenues that were denominated in different currencies. In particular, firms feared that an increase in the value of their nation’s currency would leave them suddenly uncompetitive elsewhere. This risk discouraged trade because firms preferred to plan for the relative predictability of their domestic market. Indeed, as tariff rates among European economies declined, this system of floating currencies came to have a greater trade-dampening effect than traditional trade barriers.

Thus, as a logical extension of the desire to increase trade, a single European currency to replace the fifteen national currencies has been a long-term goal of the EU for more than two decades. However, nations have strongly resisted giving up central elements of their national sovereignty: the rights to issue currency, to profit from the creation of a monetary asset, and to manage the economy by controlling the money supply. Any state harboring even a modicum of the mercantilist inclination to influence the economy–and all states do–would find the ceding of monetary policy to a regional authority an uncomfortable prospect. Moreover, a single currency would not be feasible until the various economies converged into a single market with similar levels of growth, inflation, and interest rates.

In the meantime, a less ambitious strategy was followed that preserved national currencies but restrained changes in their relative valuation. Early steps included a short-lived system of fixed exchange rates dubbed “the snake in the tunnel” in the mid-1970s. The European Monetary System (EMS), which launched the European currency unit (ECU) and included the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), began operation in 1979. EU nations that joined the ERM pledged to maintain currency valuations within a mandated range much like a regional version of the fixed exchange-rate system created under Bretton Woods.

Whenever the value of their currency drifted beyond its agreed upon bounds, they were obligated to use foreign-exchange reserves to buy or sell currency until supply and demand were once again in balance at the accepted value. When such actions were ineffective, however, governments were further bound to alter domestic interest rates or other macroeconomic policies in order to stabilize the values of their currencies. It was expected that national economic policies and conditions would eventually converge, thus minimizing exchange-rate volatility and the need for governments to take extraordinary action to maintain their treaty obligations. In fact, however, different economic conditions in different countries–especially trade deficits, inflation, and interest rates inclined foreign exchange markets to push the value of national currencies in different directions. Furthermore, because the priorities of different governments conflict, they often adopt policies that become incompatible with their obligation to maintain stable exchange rates. Thus, monetary integration poses the dilemmas of national sovereignty and value trade-offs, which is why only seven nations joined the ERM at its inception, while three others joined more than ten years later.

These dilemmas were brought home even more dramatically in fall 1992 when the ERM shattered and the prospects for further European integration consequently dimmed. At the time, Germany was suffering high inflation while struggling to unify formerly communist East Germany with capitalist West Germany. To restrain further price increases, German monetary authorities maintained high interest rates to slow the economy’s growth. Meanwhile, both Britain and Italy, which were suffering high unemployment, sought low interest rates in order to accelerate growth. However, this disparity in interest rates induced British and Italian investors to transfer capital into Germany. As they sold investments denominated in the lira and the pound, the decreased demand for those currencies drove down their values while the higher yielding Deutsche mark increased in value.

Under the terms of the ERM, Britain was required to sustain the pound at a value above 2.78 Deutsche marks (DM), and Italy was bound to maintain a value of 1,000 lira at DM1.30. As the German central bank refused to lower its interest rates, both the pound and lira drifted to the bottom of their legal bands and finally sank beneath them. Britain spent more than $15 billion (half its total foreign-exchange reserves) to support the pound, and the Bundesbank spent nearly $50 billion to support the lira; but those sums were not enough. Italy was forced to acknowledge that it could not meet its treaty obligation to maintain the lira’s value and withdrew from the ERM. Britain raised interest rates from 10 percent to 15 percent in a last futile attempt to remain in conformity but eventually abandoned the effort and similarly withdrew from the ERM. The pound quickly fell to DM2.53 and the lira to DM1.18 per 1,000. The Spanish peseta was also devalued by 5 percent and the Irish punt and Portuguese escudo soon followed. A few months later, the French franc was supported by over $10 billion of intervention in a single afternoon before the effort was abandoned. The ERM collapsed in a hail of recriminations that undermined faith in the ability of the EU to simultaneously accomplish region wide goals while respecting differences in national-level priorities.

The ERM had succumbed to the same forces that had doomed the fixed exchange rate system of Bretton Woods twenty years before large capital flows that would destabilize currency values unless counter-acted by policies that were politically unacceptable. It also foreshadowed the Asian financial crisis five years later, which is described in the following chapter. Economists refer to this interaction among interest rates, exchange rates, and capital flows as the Mundell-Fleming constraint: A nation cannot simultaneously maintain unrestrained capital flows, a stable exchange rate, and independent monetary policy. Yet, the EU was committed to the free movement of capital by the Single European Act, the ERM mandated stable exchange rates, and domestic constituencies demanded monetary policies suitable to the unemployment and inflation conditions in their own country. In effect, to maintain the stable exchange rates that sustained free trade required nations to abandon the freedom to choose policies that would satisfy other goals, such as the reunification of Germany or the control of unemployment in Italy. Faced with this clear dilemma of national sovereignty, several governments chose policy independence over the regional arrangement to encourage trade.

In August 1993, the first attempt to rebuild the ERM acknowledged the Mundell-Fleming constraint, but accepted the primacy of national sovereignty. Nations were required to maintain their currencies only within a very wide band of 15 percent on either side of their central target, virtually an unmanaged float in comparison to the previous stringent requirement of 2.25 percent. The benefits of exchange rate stability for expanding trade were thus sacrificed in this interim agreement so that governments could use monetary policy and even currency devaluations to better achieve domestic goals. But the fear of the disruptive impact of exchange rates that were permitted to move as much as 30% made this only a temporary expedient, chosen over two even less attractive options.

The first, a return to a real fixed exchange rate system, was incompatible with independent monetary policy, even if it could be accomplished in the face of large scale flows of capital. The need for independent monetary policy could be minimized, of course, if economic conditions were similar across all countries. But to more closely align economic conditions implied even greater constraint on the policies that produced them (the budget deficits that produced inflation, for example) and even greater sacrifice of national sovereignty.

The second option, the preliminary plans for which had been underway for some time, was to proceed with full monetary union by adopting a single currency. This too required policy coordination, especially with respect to budget deficits which could now produce inflation community-wide, and sacrificed even more national sovereignty because it eliminated all independent monetary policy. However, this single currency option, later to evolve into the euro, not only offered a more permanent solution to exchange rate instability, it also transformed the national sovereignty problem that most irritated the French. France felt that the old ERM had degenerated into a system in which Germany would use its monetary policy to achieve its own goals –such as unification and the control of inflation–while the pressures of that decision would require that all other ERM members use its monetary policy to keep a stable link with the D-mark. Thus, Germany benefitted from a system that was being sustained by the sacrifice of national sovereignty by all the others. If European nations were to sacrifice economic independence, they preferred that it be surrendered to an independent Central Bank rather than to a long-time political, military and economic rival such as Germany.

So was born the European Monetary Institute, established in 1994, to be transformed into the European Central Bank in January 1999.

The European Central Bank

The European Central Bank‘s mission was to issue a single currency, the euro, and thus to determine monetary policy for the entire region. The Euro was launched as an accounting unit on January 1,1999 with 11 of the 15 EU nations participating (all but Britain, Sweden, Denmark, and Greece). Euro notes and coins are to be issued on January 1, 2002, and all national currencies of the participating countries will cease to be legal tender on July 1, 2002.

Such an unprecedented ceding of autonomy over monetary policy entailed major risks that required careful selection criteria of participating nations and strict limitations on the economic policies that could be enacted by them subsequently. Without monetary policies to insulate the national economies from the conditions prevailing in others, inflation and high interest rates induced by a budget deficit in one country could quickly spread to the others, for example. Thus, the Maastricht agreement established criteria for entry, the most constraining of which were that the budget deficit must be under 3% of GDP, the national debt under 60% of GDP, and inflation under 3.2%. In fact, these criteria were relaxed, with most nations qualifying only after obvious accounting tricks, but the effort to meet them did have a substantial constraining effect on national policies. Even more constraining is the “stability and growth pact” which requires that all participants continue to observe the 3% limit on budget deficits or face substantial fines.

In democracies where tax and expenditure levels are fiercely debated, the imposition of external controls undermines the ability of citizens to determine the most important policies of their governments. Moreover, the treaty explicitly forbids the European Central Bank to “seek or take instructions from Community institutions or bodies, from any government of a member state or from any other body”. These arrangements may also unwisely prevent national governments from stimulating the economy during recession, a concern given greater weight by the statutory goal of the ECB. Unlike the Federal Reserve in the United States, the ECB is not required to take employment or output levels into account, but only to maintain price stability, which it has defined as inflation under 2% a year. “In modern times, no major economy has hit such a target consistently over a run of years…

In short, a radically undemocratic institution has been charged to achieve, without compromise, an exceptionally demanding goal of virtually zero inflation”. And the public support for such a massive transformation in authority remains precarious, with the percentage of citizens reporting that they feel well informed about the EMU well under 50% in all eleven euro countries and under a third in eight of them.(9)

Clearly, the EU represents an extreme example of one resolution of the dilemma of national sovereignty raised by the desire to achieve the benefits of free trade. Of course, the EU has other goals as well, many of which are not shared by the regional integration schemes that have sprung up all over the world in partial emulation of the EU.

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