James Crabtree • Following• Analyst, Writer, Author of the Billionaire Raj.
Modi has 80% approval. Jokowi has about the same. Prabowo just won in a landslide. Marcos is pretty popular too. So what are Asia’s leaders doing right, when politicians in rich Western nations are almost universally reviled? My latest in Foreign Policy looking at the rise of Asia’s surprisingly popular politicians. The basic argument is below:
Read the piece:
https://lnkd.in/dqmyA8Qk
The set-up: “Prabowo’s triumph had many causes. But its scale points to a wider trend, namely the surprisingly popularity of political leaders in many of Asia’s emerging market democracies. Heads of government in rich Western nations are almost universally reviled—and in many parliamentary systems, their dwindling parties often find it increasingly difficult even to cobble together ruling coalitions.
In Indonesia, by contrast, Prabowo will now replace the even more popular President Joko Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi, who ends his term in office with an 80 percent approval rating. In the Philippines, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is almost as well liked, as was his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. And in India’s election, which is expected to begin in April, Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks all but certain to produce his third overwhelming win in a row…….”
#Indonesia #India #phillipines #Modi #Prabowo #Jokowi #Democracy #Asia
Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Ph.D. View Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Ph.D.’s profile • You ★ Senior Policy and Business Adviser ★ Consultant ★ News Executive Editor ★ Public Speaker ★
Attention: James Crabtree
You are selling Roses during the Winter and all these new “Leaders” that took position have had in their family lineage or by themselves being worse than the dictators of Africa given the relative advances of their countries compared to the civil wars and poverty that have continuously aggravated the political instability in the African nations.
Besides this, all these newly designedly-elected came and rose to power through clientelism, despotism, repression, and favoritism that even translated into taking as vice-president member of the family of the president they are replacing.
This process of having such continuity in the driving and directing the power is called “keeping the files and the drawers closed” of the previous administration by appointing members of the former president who will be supporting the transition and facilitating access to the alliances and partnerships created not only within the local and regional alliances but more importantly with the representatives of the international communities and institutions existing in western societies and capitals
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tri-news-report_prabowo-jokowi-activity-7163761250848493568-STb-?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
TRI NEWS REPORT – GLOBAL USA VISION on LinkedIn: #indonesianews #saidelmansourcherkaoui … linkedin.com
TRI NEWS REPORT – GLOBAL USA VISION
New President In Indonesia: a Veteran of Political Policies, Clientelistic Politics and Patronage of Intrigues
By Said El Mansour Cherkaoui Ph.D. – Said Cherkaoui Ph.D. -2/14/24
Contact: saidcherkaoui@triconsultingkyoto.com
Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, 72, emerged from the New Order era under Suharto’s dictatorship (1965-1998), where he perpetrated certain dirty deeds as commander of the special forces. Prabowo presented himself as an heir to the immensely popular sitting President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, who was the country’s first president not coming from the country’s political or military elite.
Jokowi started as a furniture maker, and his rise to the top seemed to herald a more egalitarian and democratic style of Indonesian politics. He promised to redress human rights abuses committed under Suharto’s military rule.
Through his two five-year terms, Indonesia’s economy — Southeast Asia’s largest — has grown at about 5% a year. His infrastructure building, cash and food assistance to the poor, and health and education policies have been popular.
Indonesia is the world’s largest producer of nickel, used in making electric vehicle batteries, and Jokowi has barred the export of raw nickel, to help Indonesia move up the value chain from mining to manufacturing.
Jokowi’s move to protect his legacy, though, has alienated some supporters.
Jokowi needed a trusted person by the military-political strata. There was nothing certain about the alliance between Jokowi and Prabowo. In the 2014 and 2019 elections, Prabowo was Widodo’s only opponent. A sore loser, Prabowo claimed “massive cheating” against Widodo and drove his supporters into the streets.
Prabowo runs his presidential campaign with a vice presidential candidate Gibran Rakabuming, mayor of Surakarta, who is President Joko Widodo’s eldest son.
Last October, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court eased the requirement that presidential and vice presidential candidates need to be at least 40 years old, clearing the way for Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran to run for vice president. Critics pointed out that the court’s chief justice is Jokowi’s brother-in-law, and assailed the court’s decision as riddled with conflict of interest, nepotism, and political dynasty-building. The justice was demoted for ethical violations, but the court let the ruling stand.
There have also been reports of using poverty-alleviation funds to buy votes, the intimidation of critics of Jokowi and Prabowo, and the mobilization of civil servants, soldiers, and police to vote for Prabowo.
Subianto told thousands of supporters in the capital, Jakarta, that his victory was “the victory of all Indonesians.”
With Prabowo as the new President, and an ex-army strongman special forces commander, Indonesia Politics is back to the Future. Prabowo lost to Jokowi in the 2014 and 2019 elections.
NPR – Al Jazeera – Reuters – Le Monde
Joel Shen #indonesianews #saidelmansourcherkaoui
Joel Shen • 2nd • Lawyer | Connector | Educator | Investor
In the end, it wasn’t even close. Yesterday, 204 million Indonesians voted in the world’s largest single-day elections.
- 1. If the results of the quick count are accurate, #Prabowo Subianto will succeed the popular President #Jokowi as leader of the world’s fourth most populous country in October.
- 2. Indonesian markets got off to a strong start today after Prabowo declared victory last night. Indonesian stocks rose more than 2% to their highest in over a month, while the rupiah firmed about 0.3% to touch a one-month top of 15,545 per USD.
- 3. Prabowo has promised policy continuity and, while his strong mandate provides some reassurance to the market, investors are also cautiously watching what a “President Prabowo” would mean for fiscal policy, and whether the prudence under Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati will be maintained into the next term of government.
- 4. Prabowo’s landslide victory is, to a large extent, attributable to his predecessor’s popularity. President Jokowi, whose approval rating hovers at 80%, is the world’s most popular leader.
- 5. One of the ways in which Prabowo leveraged President Jokowi’s immense popularity was by appointing the latter’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate, amidst allegations of patronage politics and conflict of interest. Gibran’s candidacy was only approved after a contentious ruling by Indonesia’s constitutional court, which was headed by Jokowi’s now-dismissed brother-in-law.
- 6. When campaigning, Prabowo appealed to a younger demographic by reinventing his image as a loveable cat-loving uncle dancing goofily on TikTok. More than half of all Indonesian voters are born after 1980. For this younger generation, Prabowo’s human rights allegations must seem like ancient history.
- 7. Prabowo is the former commander of Kopassus, the special forces unit of the Indonesian army. He is former President Suharto’s son-in-law, and is the only presidential candidate with links to the former leader’s Orde Baru regime.
- 8. Prabowo was dishonourably discharged in 1998 after Kopassus soldiers kidnapped and tortured Suharto’s political opponents. Of 22 activists kidnapped that year, 13 remain missing. And while Prabowo never faced trial, several of his men were tried and convicted.
- 9. Prabowo has also been accused of human rights abuses in East Timor, which won independence from Indonesia amid the collapse of the Suharto regime, and its troubled eastern region of Papua. He was subsequently banned from entering the United States for his human rights violations
- 10. For all that, most Indonesian voters seemed unconcerned – Prabowo clinched about 58% of votes in Wednesday’s election, according to unofficial “quick counts” by four independent pollsters, which in previous elections have proven to be accurate.
I have included, in the comments, links to a selection of relevant articles by the BBC, Bloomberg, The Business Times, The Economist, Reuters, and The Straits Times.
Image copyright of Gerindra
Said Cherkaoui 24 